Having held relatively firm over the past three weeks, the average rate for a 30-year mortgage is starting the New Year at 3.73 percent, down 79 basis points (0.79 percentage points) on a year-over-year basis and within 32 basis points of a three/six-year low, according to Freddie Mac’s latest Mortgage Market Survey data.
At the same time, the average rate for a 15-year fixed mortgage has slipped 3 basis points to 3.16 percent, which 83 basis points below its mark at the same time last year, while the average rate for a 5-year adjustable hast ticked up to 3.46 percent, which is 52 basis points below its mark at the same time last year, for an inverted spread of 30 basis points between the 15-year fixed and 5-year adjustable rates.
And with the Fed having signaled its intention to leave the federal funds rate unchanged over the next year, and to start raising the rate in 2021, the probability of another rate cut in 2020 is holding at around 50 percent while the probability of a rate hike is a nominal 2.8 according to an analysis of the futures market.