November 20, 2009
It's Deja Vu All Over Again (This Time Thanks To The FHA)
Banking on appreciation with little skin in the game ($33,000 on a $963,000 purchase); counting on income from the upper unit of the Hayes Valley duplex to subsidize low carrying costs thanks to "rock-bottom" interest rates; and little in terms of reserves. Sounds familiar.
∙ With F.H.A. Help, Easy Loans in Expensive Areas [New York Times]
∙ US (But Not DA) Prime And FHA Mortgage Defaults Climbing [SocketSite]
Readers' Comments (20) | Permalink | Email Story | Filed under: Seemingly Random
The Grand Plan For A San Francisco "Transit Center District"
The Planning Department's draft Transit Center District Plan for the rectangle bounded by Market, Steuart, Folsom, and mid-block between 3rd and New Montgomery is now online.
The plan's five Core Goals:
1. Build on the General Plan’s Urban Design Element and Downtown Plan, establishing controls, guidelines, and standards to advance existing policies of livability, as well as those that protect the unique qualities of place.
2. Capitalize on major transit investment with appropriate land use in the downtown core, with an eye toward long-term growth considerations.
3. Create a framework for a network of public streets and open spaces that support the transit system, and provides a wide variety of public amenities and a world-class pedestrian experience.
4. Generate financial support for the Transbay Transit Center project, district infrastructure, and other public improvements.
5. Ensure that the Transit Center District is an example of comprehensive environmental sustainability in all regards.
In addition to establishing a 1,000 foot height for the proposed Transbay Tower, the plan raises the height limit for six other sites to exceed the current 550-foot ceiling.
And in addition to neighborhood open spaces either existing or already in the works, the Plan proposes a new half acre public plaza on the corner of Second and Howard/Natoma.
The plaza would serve as a gateway to the Transit Center and City Park as envisoned in the watercolor above. Total budget for the plan as proposed (excluding development costs for the new Transbay Terminal/Transit Center): $567,250,000.
∙ Draft Transit Center District Plan [SFGov]
∙ Transbay Transit Center: Community Insight (And Involvement) [SocketSite]
∙ Transbay Terminal Zoning Presentation And "Urban Form Simulations" [SocketSite]
Readers' Comments (32) | Permalink | Email Story | Filed under: As Proposed, Bay Buildings, Design & Architecture, Neighborhoods
San Francisco County Unemployment Up To 9.9 Percent In October
Preliminary October labor force data counts for San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties puts the unemployment rate at 9.9%, 8.1% and 9.1% respectively, up 0.2 percentage points in San Francisco and up 0.1 percentage points in Marin and San Mateo.
While the number of unemployed in San Francisco increased by 700 (from 43,400 to 44,100) in October, the number of employed fell by 1,600 (from 403,700 to 402,100) as the labor force contracted by 1,000 (from 447,100 to 446,100).
Overall California unemployment increased by 0.3 percentage points to 12.3%.
∙ Monthly Labor Force Data for Counties: October 2009 (Preliminary) [EDD]
∙ San Francisco County Unemployment At 9.7 Percent In September [SocketSite]
Readers' Comments (9) | Permalink | Email Story | Filed under: Real Estate Economics, Trends
Into The Bernal Apple Cart Falls 82 Ellsworth
The sale of 82 Ellsworth on the South Slope of Bernal Heights closed escrow yesterday with a reported contract price of $855,000 (asking $899,000).
Purchased in April 2005 for $975,000, it's a 12.3% drop in value below its 2005 price for the two-bedroom and two-bath single-family home two blocks above the heart of Cortland.
∙ Apples To Apples (Aside From Any Other Analytics) In Bernal Heights [SocketSite]
Readers' Comments (38) | Permalink | Email Story | Filed under: Apples To Apples, Neighborhoods
November 19, 2009
San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In October: Up 33.6% YOY
According to DataQuick, recorded home sales volume in San Francisco jumped 33.6% on a year-over-year basis last month (553 recorded sales in October ’09 versus 414 sales in October ‘08) and rose 3.2% compared to the month prior.
San Francisco's median sales price in October was $690,824, down 1.2% compared to October ’08 ($699,000) but up 6.3% compared to the month prior.
For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in October was up 4.2% on a year-over-year basis and up 0.7% from the month prior (7,933 recorded sales in October '09 versus 7,613 in October ’08 and 7,879 in September '09), while the recorded median sales price rose 4.0% on a year-over-year basis, up 6.8% compared to the month prior. Think mix.
Sales in the region’s higher-cost counties – Marin, San Francisco, Santa Clara and San Mateo – represented 42.2 percent of October sales, up from 35.3 percent a year ago, when more sales were concentrated in the lower-cost inland areas rife with deeply discounted foreclosures. Sales over $500,000 made up 36 percent of all sales last month, up from 34.9 percent a year ago and a low this year of 22.7 percent in January.
At the extremes, San Francisco recorded the greatest year-over-year percentage increase in sales volume while Solano recorded a 8.6% year-over-year decrease in sales volume (a loss of 67 transactions) and a 18.8% drop in median sales price.
As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).
UPDATE: We assumed it went without saying, but with respect to the magnitude of the year-over-year sales increase, keep in mind that October 2008 was a rather rough month for the markets. Recorded San Francisco county October sales figures over the past six years: 720 (2004), 670 (2005), 573 (2006), 526 (2007), 414 (2008), 553 (2009).
∙ Bay Area median sale price tops year-ago level [DQnews]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In September: Up 17% YOY [SocketSite]
Readers' Comments (63) | Permalink | Email Story | Filed under: Trends
US (But Not DA) Prime And FHA Mortgage Defaults Climbing
While subprime adjustable-rate foreclosures starts dropped in the third quarter of 2009 (from 5.52 percent to 4.92 percent), both the number and pace of FHA backed and prime fixed-rate mortgage defaults climbed.
One out of every six FHA mortgages was late by at least one payment and 3.32 percent were in foreclosure, the highest for both since at least 1979, the Mortgage Bankers Association said today. The delinquency rate for prime fixed-rate mortgages, considered home loans with the least risk, rose to 5.8 percent and the foreclosure inventory rose to 1.95 percent, the highest since at least 1972.
The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started was a record 1.42 percent. New foreclosures on prime fixed-rate loans increased to 0.71 percent from 0.67 percent, while FHA foreclosure starts rose to 1.31 percent from 1.15 percent.
From DataQuick today:
Federally-insured FHA loans, a popular choice among first-time buyers, made up 25.9 percent of all Bay Area purchase loans [in October]. That was up from 24.9 percent in September, 19 percent a year ago and less than 1 percent two years ago.
And while default rates are climbing, keep in mind money remains historically cheap:
The 30-year rate dropped to 4.83 percent from 4.91 percent, the lowest since May, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac of McLean, Virginia, said today in a statement. The average 15-year rate fell to 4.32 percent, the lowest since records began in 1991.
∙ FHA, Prime Mortgage Defaults at Records on Job Losses [Bloomberg]
∙ OMG For The FHA [SocketSite]
∙ U.S. Mortgage Rates Fall for Third Consecutive Week [Bloomberg]
Readers' Comments (1) | Permalink | Email Story | Filed under: Real Estate Economics, Trends
Two Years And A 46 Percent Drop In Expectations For 2100 Vallejo
Listed in December 2007 for $25,000,000, the asking price for 2001 Vallejo has been reduced a few times since. Now asking $13,500,000 (which includes the adjacent buildable lot), call it an effective 46 percent reduction in list price over the past two years.
As a plugged-in sleepiguy wrote in 2008:
I think the extra lot is a little confusing. This house is Historical with a capital H and I doubt the neighbors nor the Pac Heights Res. Association would support subdividing the lot and putting a building on it. Believe me, even billionaires are scared of the planning commission. It also doesn't help that the house next door has been for sale for well over a year for about 10 million less. Based on the Scott St. sales, I think this house would've sold for 18-20 earlier this year, but I'd wager that right now it's dead in the water.
As a plugged-in eddy added earlier this year:
Honestly, in re-reading my comments and sleepiguy's…I have to think that north of $15M is a stretch at this point. 10 for the house, 5 for the lot.... And that is a big Maybe. The craze of 2007/2008 at this end of the market is gone.
True dat with a capital T. And it's something that shouldn’t have caught any plugged-in readers by surprise. Now about the newest competition in the eight figure realm...
∙ Listing: 2100 Vallejo (5/5.5) - $13,500,000 [MLS]
∙ It Might Not Have A Name, But It’s A Vallejo Mansion Nonetheless [SocketSite]
∙ It’s Time For Another Industry Report Asterisk (2100 Vallejo Edition) [SocketSite]
∙ 2342 Broadway Returns Anew, "Green," And Asking $14,000,000 [SocketSite]
Readers' Comments (10) | Permalink | Email Story | Filed under: Listings (for sale), RealRecentReductions
New Year (And Perhaps Market) Motivations Atop Nob Hill
From the property flyer now making its way around the brokerages for 1170 Sacramento Street #2B by way of a plugged-in tipster: "TENANTS HAVE MOVED---NOW PAINTED AND STAGED! MOTIVATED SELLER! WANTS TO CLOSE BY DEC. 31!"
On the market for the past month asking $1,595,000 (purchased for $1,450,000 in May 2005), will it take more "motivation" than furnishings and paint to grant this holiday wish?
Other 1,961 square foot "B" stack units in the building currently on the MLS: 1170 Sacramento #12B asking $1,950,000 (reduced from $2,200,000); and 1170 Sacramento #14B asking $2,150,000 and which comes with a separate one-bedroom unit that "can be sold to another owner in bldg" (reduced from $2,380,000).
∙ Listing: 1170 Sacramento #2B (2/2.5) - $1,595,000 [1170-sacramento-2b.com] [MLS]
∙ Listing: 1170 Sacramento #12B (2/2.5) - $1,950,000 [MLS]
∙ Listing: 1170 Sacramento #14B (3/3.5) - $2,150,000 [MLS]
Readers' Comments (1) | Permalink | Email Story | Filed under: Bay Buildings, Listings (for sale)
A Resale One Joins The Two At Seventy-Four New Montgomery
While the two-bedroom 74 New Montgomery #502 remains available at $945,000 (24% under its un-upgraded purchase price in 2008), a tipster notes a one-bedroom resale (74 New Montgomery #305) has also hit the market asking $485,000 (12% under its purchase price in January 2008).
We’ll assume the shades are drawn to simply show off the upgrade, or for the purposes of photography, not to hide the views.
∙ Listing: 74 New Montgomery #305 (1/1) - $485,000 [MLS]
∙ Overlooking Architecture (And Upgrades) At The Montgomery (#502) [SocketSite]
Readers' Comments (7) | Permalink | Email Story | Filed under: Apples To Apples, Bay Buildings, Listings (for sale)
November 18, 2009
Sold Together For $9M in '07, Purchased Apart For $6,766,001 In '09
As we wrote two weeks ago:
Still listed on the San Francisco Association of Realtors' MLS last week as an "active listing" despite a plugged-in reader's report that it had actually sold at foreclosure auction two weeks ago, today the MLS listing for 2151 Green Street was...withdrawn.
And if our reader’s source is correct, the buyer at $3,066,001 was...the person who sold it to the foreclosed upon party along with the adjoining empty lot for $9,000,000 in 2007.
Oh, and the listing for said lot now known as 2157 Green Street just went pending (last asking $4,200,000).
The sale of the 2157 Green Street lot has since closed escrow with a reported contract price of $3,700,000, so make that a total purchase price of $6,766,001 for the two District 7 pieces that sold together for $9,000,000 in 2007 prior to the added value of the lot split.
And while our reader was correct with respect to the auction of 2151 Green Street, our sources say the buyer wasn’t the seller in 2007 (but did just buy the lot as well).
Just to be clear, the six-bedroom, five-bath and 6,800 square foot Cow Hollow home which had been "remodeled" and then returned to the market in 2008 asking $10,950,000 (reduced to $7,350,000 in 2009) sold at auction for $3,066,001 four weeks ago.
∙ The 2151 Green Street Scoop: Wait For It… [SocketSite]
∙ Reader Versus Realtor: Did 2151 Green Street Just Sell At Auction? [SocketSite]
∙ But Hey, $550,000 Is Simply A Rounding Error To A Proper Industrialist [SocketSite]
∙ Another District Seven Mansion Heads For Foreclosure (2151 Green) [SocketSite]
∙ The Scoop On 2157 Green Street (Could You See The Foreshadowing?) [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Real Estate Districts: Maps And Neighborhoods [SocketSite]
Readers' Comments (10) | Permalink | Email Story | Filed under: Apples To Apples, Bubble (Or Not)
