CFAH

San Francisco Sales and Median: August 2010 (www.SocketSite.com)
Recorded home sales volume in San Francisco fell 12.3% on a year-over-year basis last month (451 recorded sales in August ’10 versus 514 sales in August ‘09) according to DataQuick, flat as compared to the month prior.
For context, August sales figures for San Francisco from 2004 to 2008 were 814 (2004), 733 (2005), 669 (2006), 577 (2007), and 529 (2008). And on average, from 2004 to 2009 sales volume increased 0.4% from July to August.
San Francisco’s median sales price in August was $652,500, up 2.8% compared to August ’09 ($635,000) but down 3.5% compared to the month prior.
For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in August was down 10.9% on a year-over-year basis, down 1.1% from the month prior (6,698 recorded sales in August ’10 versus 7,518 in August ’09 and 6,773 in July ’10) as the recorded median sales price rose 6.9% on a year-over-year basis, down 4.2% as compared to the month prior.
Last month was the slowest August in terms of sales volume in 18 years, and versus a 15 year low for July.

Last month foreclosure resales – homes that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – inched up to 26.7 percent of the Bay Area’s resale market. That was up from 25.3 percent in July but down from 34.3 percent in August 2009. Foreclosure resales peaked at 52.0 percent in February 2009. The monthly average for foreclosure resales over the past 15 years is about 8 percent.

Government-insured FHA loans, a popular choice among first-time buyers, accounted for 24.2 percent of all home purchase loans in August, up from 23.3 percent in July but down slightly from 24.8 percent in August 2009.

At the extremes, Solano recorded a 19.9% drop in sales volume (a loss of 135 transactions) on a 1.0% increase in median sales price in August while Marin recorded a 12.8% decline in sales volume (a loss of 30 transactions) on a 9.0% decrease in median.
As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed (“sold”) many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).
Bay Area Home Sales Drop to 1992 Level; Median Price Slips Again [DQNews]
San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In July Falls 16.8% YOY [SocketSite]
He’s It’s Back: California’s $10,000 Homebuyer Tax Credit Returns [SocketSite]

Comments from Plugged-In Readers

  1. Posted by eddy

    These stats are all goofed up due to the home buyer credits shifting demand around a bit; but overall this feels about right. The old adage of its got to get worse before it gets better still holds true. So 1797 on MLS / 451 transactions per month = 3.98 months of supply.
    Note to potential sellers: Please hold off listing your properties until January 2011 and we’ll have some serious demand! 😉
    [Editor’s Note: Be careful mixing data sets (recorded sales versus listed inventory). More accurately, the ratio of listed inventory at the end of August to listed sales in August increased from 2.6 in 2009 to 4.3 in 2010 (up 65 percent).]

  2. Posted by lol

    This fall is going to be very interesting.
    End of stalemate? Buying spree? Desperation sales?

  3. Posted by lol

    eddy, the MLS#s are not the full current inventory. I am sure there are still a few condo buildings with unlisted inventory, as well as off-MLS deals that you’d find on Trulia or Zillow.
    [Editor’s Note: Our current count for unlisted new development inventory is roughly 1,000 units.]

  4. Posted by eddy

    Meh, close enough 🙂

  5. Posted by A.T.

    eddy, you’re mixing up listing and sales data sources. 1797 on MLS — active inventory as of last week and growing. And 451 in total sales including non-MLS sales. MLS sales last month were 360 according to http://www.rereport.com/sf/index.html
    1797/360 is 4.99 months, but it would be higher if you include contingent inventory and/or inventory that was listed and pulled during the month. I do not know the “official” method, but regardless of how one derives the number, it is growing.
    Buyers are not buying at asking prices. Question is whether sellers will continue to lower prices to the point where they sell or if places will just sit.

  6. Posted by eddy

    4,4.3, 4.99, you get the picture. 🙂 But I think 4.99 seems like the best one yet. I’d just like to see an agreed upon standard.

  7. Posted by lol

    Thanks editor,
    (1797+1000)/451 = 6.2 months
    The stalemate is gaining momentum
    [Editor’s Note: No problem. Our unlisted inentory count in August 2009 was roughly 1,200 which would equal “5.2 months” on an apples-to-apples basis.]

  8. Posted by sfrenegade

    Here are some of the numbers for July and August, picking the inventory number that’s closest to mid-month (which is an arbitrary choice):
    MLS inventory on August 16, 2010: 1594
    DQ Aug10 sales: 451 = 3.5 months
    MLS Aug10 sales: 360 = 4.4 months
    MLS inventory on July 12, 2010: 1799
    DQ Jul10 sales: 452 = 4.0 months
    MLS Jul10 sales: 385 = 4.7 months
    MLS inventory on August 16, 2009: 1352
    DQ Aug09 sales: 514 = 2.6 months
    MLS Aug09 sales: 495 = 2.7 months
    MLS inventory on July 12, 2009: 1569
    DQ Jul09 sales: 543 = 2.9 months
    MLS Jul09 sales: 452 = 3.5 months
    The MLS number seems more “apples-to-apples,” but it’s odd that there were so few off-MLS sales in August 2009 compared to the other months.
    MLS inventory are as reported by SocketSite. DQ sales are as reported by DataQuick. MLS sales are as reported by rereport.com.

  9. Posted by eddy

    @sfrenegade, thanks for posting. I think the MLS inventory and the MLS Sales are probably the right numbers. All other noise like pent up supply, foreclosures, pocket listings, etc.. are all just asterisks to simple clean figures. Those other variables are important, but I like to keep it simple.
    I propose that we include the MLS invetory (as reported by SS) and MLS Sales (as reported by rereport) on a more formal basis.

  10. Posted by lol

    pent-up inventory?
    These units are actually for sale and advertised (by the sales teams or the seller) if not on the MLS. Therefore they are actual inventory. Too bad the MLS doesn’t include them.
    Actual pent-up inventory would be homes that are not on the market but might come up at some point, like units pulled by the seller due to bad market conditions or effective foreclosures that the bank is not trying to market.
    The pent-up inventory is tough to measure. 100s? 1000s? Everybody’s guess.

  11. Posted by eddy

    Heck, every home is pent up by some definition. Let’s just try to stick to something that is easy and measurable against national averages; which I assume are MLS driven.

  12. Posted by sfrenegade

    Here’s a paste of data from the last 2 years then:
    Columns are Month, MLS Inventory reported by SS, Inventory Date, MLS Sales reported by Rereport, and MLS Months of Inventory:
    Sep-10 1797 9/13/2010
    Aug-10 1594 8/16/2010 360 4.4
    Jul-10 1799 7/12/2010 385 4.7
    Jun-10 1697 avg 6/1 6/28 446 3.8
    May-10 1599 5/10/2010 480 3.3
    Apr-10 1491 4/12/2010 317 4.7
    Mar-10 1361 3/15/2010 414 3.3
    Feb-10 1116 2/16/2010 247 4.5
    Jan-10 909.5 avg 1/4 2/1 226 4.0
    Dec-09 1131 12/14/2009 412 2.7
    Nov-09 1346 11/17/2009 395 3.4
    Oct-09 1460 10/13/2009 435 3.4
    Sep-09 1448 9/13/2009 392 3.7
    Aug-09 1352 8/16/2009 495 2.7
    Jul-09 1569 7/13/2009 452 3.5
    Jun-09 1630 6/15/2009 389 4.2
    May-09 1672 5/10/2009 328 5.1
    Apr-09 1622 4/13/2009 277 5.9
    Mar-09 1648 3/16/2009 238 6.9
    Feb-09 1500 2/17/2009 192 7.8
    Jan-09 1189 1/21/2009 141 8.4
    Dec-08 1405 12/15/2008 265 5.3
    Nov-08 1788 11/17/2008 241 7.4
    Oct-08 1789 10/13/2008 381 4.7
    Sep-08 1544 9/15/2008 332 4.7
    I could produce a similar chart of MLS inventory vs. DQ sales, but it’s not apples-to-apples.

  13. Posted by eddy

    @sfrenegade, Thanks. Very helpful.
    Here is it graphed:
    http://www.chartgo.com/share.do?id=12b0b69caa

  14. Posted by A.T.

    That’s a good graph eddy. Shows how really ugly things got during the meltdown and the ensuing months, and then the remarkable turnaround during the second half of 2009. Trickling in the other direction in 2010 but lots of month-to-month noise.

  15. Posted by PostIt

    AT- yep looks like noise. It’s interesting to note that San Mateo County reports a decline in sales volume of only 2.5%. Napa reports an increase in sales (a whopping +.5%!). The overall trend is declining sales, but there appear to be pockets of resistance.

  16. Posted by sfrenegade

    Here’s data going back as far as Rereport has complete sales data, which is May 2007 – they only gave SFR data before that:
    Columns: Month, MLS Inventory as reported by SocketSite, MLS Sales as reported by Rereport, MLS Months of Inventory
    Sep-10 1797
    Aug-10 1594 360 4.4
    Jul-10 1799 385 4.7
    Jun-10 1697 446 3.8 (estimated inventory)
    May-10 1599 480 3.3
    Apr-10 1491 317 4.7
    Mar-10 1361 414 3.3
    Feb-10 1116 247 4.5
    Jan-10 909.5 226 4.0 (estimated inventory)
    Dec-09 1131 412 2.7
    Nov-09 1346 395 3.4
    Oct-09 1460 435 3.4
    Sep-09 1448 392 3.7
    Aug-09 1352 495 2.7
    Jul-09 1569 452 3.5
    Jun-09 1630 389 4.2
    May-09 1685 328 5.1
    Apr-09 1622 277 5.9
    Mar-09 1648 238 6.9
    Feb-09 1500 192 7.8
    Jan-09 1189 141 8.4
    Dec-08 1405 265 5.3
    Nov-08 1788 241 7.4
    Oct-08 1789 381 4.7
    Sep-08 1544 332 4.7
    Aug-08 1388 393 3.5
    Jul-08 1470 478 3.1
    Jun-08 1496 426 3.5
    May-08 1491 478 3.1
    Apr-08 1381 382 3.6
    Mar-08 1329 318 4.2
    Feb-08 1159 292 4.0
    Jan-08 1053 215 4.9
    Dec-07 1077 355 3.0
    Nov-07 1393 408 3.4
    Oct-07 1532 452 3.4
    Sep-07 1408 346 4.1
    Aug-07 1187 464 2.6
    Jul-07 1157 470 2.5
    Jun-07 1152 513 2.2
    May-07 1091 529 2.1
    eddy, feel free to make the chart again.

  17. Posted by sfrenegade

    Trailing 3 months gives a better graph because it smooths out the noise:
    Columns: Month, MLS Inventory as reported by SocketSite, MLS Sales as reported by Rereport, MLS Months of Inventory, Trailing 3 Months of Inventory
    Sep-10 1797
    Aug-10 1594 360 4.4 4.3
    Jul-10 1799 385 4.7 3.9
    Jun-10 1697 446 3.8 3.9
    May-10 1599 480 3.3 3.8
    Apr-10 1491 317 4.7 4.2
    Mar-10 1361 414 3.3 3.9
    Feb-10 1116 247 4.5 3.8
    Jan-10 909.5 226 4.0 3.4
    Dec-09 1131 412 2.7 3.2
    Nov-09 1346 395 3.4 3.5
    Oct-09 1460 435 3.4 3.3
    Sep-09 1448 392 3.7 3.3
    Aug-09 1352 495 2.7 3.5
    Jul-09 1569 452 3.5 4.3
    Jun-09 1630 389 4.2 5.1
    May-09 1685 328 5.1 6.0
    Apr-09 1622 277 5.9 6.9
    Mar-09 1648 238 6.9 7.7
    Feb-09 1500 192 7.8 7.2
    Jan-09 1189 141 8.4 7.1
    Dec-08 1405 265 5.3 5.8
    Nov-08 1788 241 7.4 5.6
    Oct-08 1789 381 4.7 4.3
    Sep-08 1544 332 4.7 3.8
    Aug-08 1388 393 3.5 3.4
    Jul-08 1470 478 3.1 3.2
    Jun-08 1496 426 3.5 3.4
    May-08 1491 478 3.1 3.6
    Apr-08 1381 382 3.6 3.9
    Mar-08 1329 318 4.2 4.3
    Feb-08 1159 292 4.0 4.0
    Jan-08 1053 215 4.9 3.8
    Dec-07 1077 355 3.0 3.3
    Nov-07 1393 408 3.4 3.6
    Oct-07 1532 452 3.4 3.3
    Sep-07 1408 346 4.1 3.0
    Aug-07 1187 464 2.6 2.4
    Jul-07 1157 470 2.5 2.3

  18. Posted by A.T.

    The guy who maintains rereport has good data for SFRs and condos going back to 2005 — active, pending, sales. Unfortunately, he does it (generally) by week, so there is a lot of noise and the Mo’s-inventory varies a lot because just a few more or fewer sales in a week results in a big swing.
    http://www.andrewlamont.com/Nav.aspx/Page=%2fPageManager%2fDefault.aspx%2fPageID%3d1953256

  19. Posted by PostIt

    Chart of 3-month trailing averages.
    http://www.chartgo.com/share.do?id=b5ec6c54aa

  20. Posted by sfrenegade

    Thanks for the link, A.T. That’s a lot of helpful data, and it could use some more charts like has for San Mateo County. It wouldn’t be hard to make it trailing 3 or 4 weeks to smooth out the noise a bit.
    I looked at a chart of trailing 3 months of SF inventory based on the data I posted above, and it could be coincidence but the November 2009 expiration and April 2010 expiration of the 2009 tax credit and its extension appear visible on it. Trailing 3 months inventory peaked in both of those months and then tanked the following month.

  21. Posted by PostIt

    I’ve tabulated that weekly data below, the chart site won’t plot all of the data for some reason:
    Date Months of Inventory MOI (4-week trailing average) MOI (8-week trailing average) MOI (12-week trailing average)
    4/6/2005 1.49
    4/13/05 1.75
    4/20/05 1.58
    4/27/2005 1.45 1.5675
    5/4/2005 1.35 1.5325
    5/11/2005 1.56 1.485
    5/18/2005 1.83 1.5475
    5/25/2005 1.29 1.5075 1.5375
    6/1/2005 1.47 1.5375 1.535
    6/8/2005 1.85 1.61 1.5475
    6/15/2005 1.72 1.5825 1.565
    6/22/2005 1.93 1.7425 1.625 1.605833333
    6/29/2005 2.26 1.94 1.73875 1.67
    7/13/2005 2.32 2.0575 1.83375 1.7175
    7/20/2005 2.49 2.25 1.91625 1.793333333
    7/27/2005 2.17 2.31 2.02625 1.853333333
    8/3/2005 1.86 2.21 2.075 1.895833333
    8/10/2005 2.74 2.315 2.18625 1.994166667
    8/17/2005 2.7 2.3675 2.30875 2.066666667
    8/24/2005 1.47 2.1925 2.25125 2.081666667
    8/31/2005 1.46 2.0925 2.15125 2.080833333
    9/7/2005 2.06 1.9225 2.11875 2.098333333
    9/14/2005 3.24 2.0575 2.2125 2.225
    9/21/2005 2.91 2.4175 2.305 2.306666667
    9/28/2005 3.74 2.9875 2.54 2.43
    10/5/2005 4.79 3.67 2.79625 2.635833333
    10/12/2005 3.14 3.645 2.85125 2.69
    10/19/2005 2.97 3.66 3.03875 2.756666667
    10/26/2005 2.6 3.375 3.18125 2.818333333
    11/2/2005 1.99 2.675 3.1725 2.755833333
    11/9/2005 2.36 2.48 3.0625 2.7275
    11/16/2005 2.35 2.325 2.9925 2.800833333
    11/23/2005 1.92 2.155 2.765 2.839166667
    11/30/2005 3.39 2.505 2.59 2.95
    12/7/2005 1.78 2.36 2.42 2.828333333
    12/14/2005 2.08 2.2925 2.30875 2.759166667
    12/28/2005 2.66 2.4775 2.31625 2.669166667
    1/4/2006 1.94 2.115 2.31 2.431666667
    1/11/2006 3.85 2.6325 2.49625 2.490833333
    1/18/2006 3.49 2.985 2.63875 2.534166667
    1/25/2006 5.15 3.6075 3.0425 2.746666667
    2/1/2006 3.85 4.085 3.1 2.901666667
    2/8/2006 2.69 3.795 3.21375 2.929166667
    2/15/2006 4.93 4.155 3.57 3.144166667
    2/22/2006 3.32 3.6975 3.6525 3.260833333
    3/1/2006 3.32 3.565 3.825 3.255
    3/8/2006 2.6 3.5425 3.66875 3.323333333
    3/15/2006 2.58 2.955 3.555 3.365
    3/22/2006 2.81 2.8275 3.2625 3.3775
    3/29/2006 2.55 2.635 3.1 3.428333333
    4/5/2006 2.17 2.5275 3.035 3.288333333
    4/12/2006 2.04 2.3925 2.67375 3.1675
    4/19/2006 2.17 2.2325 2.53 2.919166667
    4/26/2006 2.54 2.23 2.4325 2.81
    5/3/2006 2.26 2.2525 2.39 2.774166667
    5/10/2006 2.74 2.4275 2.41 2.591666667
    5/17/2006 3.04 2.645 2.43875 2.568333333
    5/24/2006 3.24 2.82 2.525 2.561666667
    5/31/2006 3.43 3.1125 2.6825 2.630833333
    6/7/2006 3.14 3.2125 2.82 2.6775
    6/14/2006 2.34 3.0375 2.84125 2.638333333
    6/21/2006 2.35 2.815 2.8175 2.621666667
    6/28/2006 3.51 2.835 2.97375 2.733333333
    7/12/2006 4.16 3.09 3.15125 2.91
    7/19/2006 3.53 3.3875 3.2125 3.023333333
    7/26/2006 2.92 3.53 3.1725 3.055
    8/2/2006 2.55 3.29 3.0625 3.079166667
    8/9/2006 3.16 3.04 3.065 3.114166667
    8/16/2006 4.12 3.1875 3.2875 3.204166667
    8/23/2006 3.06 3.2225 3.37625 3.189166667
    8/30/2006 3.76 3.525 3.4075 3.216666667
    9/6/2006 2.85 3.4475 3.24375 3.1925
    9/20/2006 4.02 3.4225 3.305 3.3325
    9/27/2006 5.18 3.9525 3.5875 3.568333333
    10/4/2006 2.56 3.6525 3.58875 3.489166667
    10/11/2006 4.17 3.9825 3.715 3.49
    10/18/2006 4.33 4.06 3.74125 3.556666667
    8/25/2006 3.06 3.53 3.74125 3.568333333
    11/1/2006 3.03 3.6475 3.65 3.608333333
    11/8/2006 3.31 3.4325 3.7075 3.620833333
    11/15/2006 3.89 3.3225 3.69125 3.601666667
    11/22/2006 2.36 3.1475 3.33875 3.543333333
    11/29/2006 3.05 3.1525 3.4 3.484166667
    12/6/2006 2.06 2.84 3.13625 3.418333333
    12/13/2006 2.02 2.3725 2.8475 3.251666667
    12/20/2006 3.08 2.5525 2.85 3.076666667
    12/27/2006 2.56 2.43 2.79125 3.076666667
    1/3/2007 3.11 2.6925 2.76625 2.988333333
    1/10/2007 2.11 2.715 2.54375 2.803333333
    1/17/2007 2.43 2.5525 2.5525 2.750833333
    1/24/2007 5.37 3.255 2.8425 2.945833333
    1/31/2007 4.72 3.6575 3.175 3.063333333
    2/7/2007 4.97 4.3725 3.54375 3.153333333
    2/14/2007 3.65 4.6775 3.615 3.260833333
    2/1/2007 2.78 4.03 3.6425 3.238333333
    2/28/2007 2.39 3.4475 3.5525 3.265833333
    3/7/2007 2.31 2.7825 3.5775 3.29
    3/14/2007 2.63 2.5275 3.6025 3.2525
    3/21/2007 2.45 2.445 3.2375 3.243333333
    3/28/2007 2.26 2.4125 2.93 3.1725
    4/4/2007 2.27 2.4025 2.5925 3.185833333
    4/11/2007 3.42 2.6 2.56375 3.268333333
    4/18/2007 3.27 2.805 2.625 3.093333333
    4/25/2007 2.69 2.9125 2.6625 2.924166667
    5/2/2007 2.86 3.06 2.73125 2.748333333
    5/9/2007 2.87 2.9225 2.76125 2.683333333
    5/16/2007 6.17 3.6475 3.22625 2.965833333
    5/23/2007 3.01 3.7275 3.32 3.0175
    5/30/2007 2.07 3.53 3.295 2.9975
    6/6/2007 2.37 3.405 3.16375 2.975833333
    6/13/2007 2.76 2.5525 3.1 3.001666667
    6/20/2007 3.07 2.5675 3.1475 3.069166667
    6/27/2007 2.54 2.685 3.1075 3.091666667
    7/4/2007 2.15 2.63 3.0175 2.985833333
    7/11/2007 4.17 2.9825 2.7675 3.060833333
    7/18/2007 3.79 3.1625 2.865 3.1525
    7/25/2007 3.23 3.335 3.01 3.183333333
    8/3/2007 2.84 3.5075 3.06875 3.180833333
    8/8/2007 2.91 3.1925 3.0875 2.909166667
    8/15/2007 3.5 3.12 3.14125 2.95
    8/22/2007 5.06 3.5775 3.45625 3.199166667
    8/29/2007 4.63 4.025 3.76625 3.3875
    9/5/2007 4.49 4.42 3.80625 3.531666667
    9/12/2007 5.47 4.9125 4.01625 3.731666667
    9/19/2007 5.68 5.0675 4.3225 3.993333333
    9/26/2007 4.34 4.995 4.51 4.175833333
    10/3/2007 4.11 4.9 4.66 4.170833333
    10/10/2007 4.98 4.7775 4.845 4.27
    10/17/2007 5.84 4.8175 4.9425 4.4875
    10/24/2007 4.03 4.74 4.8675 4.586666667
    10/31/2007 4.76 4.9025 4.90125 4.740833333
    11/7/2007 3.45 4.52 4.64875 4.736666667
    11/14/2007 4.31 4.1375 4.4775 4.674166667
    11/28/2007 5.14 4.415 4.5775 4.716666667
    12/5/2007 2.83 3.9325 4.4175 4.578333333
    12/12/2007 4.47 4.1875 4.35375 4.495
    12/19/2007 3.5 3.985 4.06125 4.313333333
    12/26/2007 3.14 3.485 3.95 4.213333333
    1/2/2008 2.78 3.4725 3.7025 4.1025
    1/9/2008 3.56 3.245 3.71625 3.984166667
    1/16/2008 7.38 4.215 4.1 4.1125
    1/23/2008 5.06 4.695 4.09 4.198333333
    1/30/2008 9.38 6.345 4.90875 4.583333333
    2/6/2008 5.64 6.865 5.055 4.765833333
    2/13/2008 6.09 6.5425 5.37875 4.914166667
    2/20/2008 4.37 6.37 5.5325 4.85
    2/27/2008 5.07 5.2925 5.81875 5.036666667
    3/5/2008 3.27 4.7 5.7825 4.936666667
    3/12/2008 4.14 4.2125 5.3775 4.99
    3/19/2008 4.45 4.2325 5.30125 5.099166667
    3/26/2008 6.26 4.53 4.91125 5.389166667
    4/2/2008 3.34 4.5475 4.62375 5.370833333
    4/9/2008 4.22 4.5675 4.39 5.1075
    4/16/2008 3.35 4.2925 4.2625 4.965
    4/23/2008 3.39 3.575 4.0525 4.465833333
    4/30/2008 3.91 3.7175 4.1325 4.321666667
    5/7/2008 3.33 3.495 4.03125 4.091666667
    5/14/2008 4.01 3.66 3.97625 4.061666667
    5/21/2008 3.3 3.6375 3.60625 3.914166667
    5/28/2008 4.81 3.8625 3.79 4.0425
    6/4/2008 3.02 3.785 3.64 3.949166667
    6/11/2008 4.74 3.9675 3.81375 3.973333333
    6/18/2008 3.92 4.1225 3.88 3.778333333
    6/25/2008 2.83 3.6275 3.745 3.735833333
    7/9/2008 3.41 3.725 3.755 3.668333333
    7/16/2008 4.35 3.6275 3.7975 3.751666667
    7/23/2008 2.85 3.36 3.74125 3.706666667
    7/30/2008 4.17 3.695 3.66125 3.728333333
    8/6/2008 4.28 3.9125 3.81875 3.8075
    8/13/2008 5.57 4.2175 3.9225 3.9375
    8/20/2008 3.95 4.4925 3.92625 3.991666667
    8/27/2008 5.12 4.73 4.2125 4.0175
    9/3/2008 2.96 4.4 4.15625 4.0125
    9/10/2008 5.39 4.355 4.28625 4.066666667
    9/17/2008 7.01 5.12 4.80625 4.324166667
    9/24/2008 4.85 5.0525 4.89125 4.4925
    10/1/2008 5.68 5.7325 5.06625 4.681666667
    10/8/2008 3.95 5.3725 4.86375 4.648333333
    10/15/2008 6.05 5.1325 5.12625 4.915
    10/22/2008 5.04 5.18 5.11625 4.9875
    10/29/2008 6.1 5.285 5.50875 5.139166667
    11/5/2008 5.19 5.595 5.48375 5.1075
    11/12/2008 6.38 5.6775 5.405 5.31
    11/19/2008 8.18 6.4625 5.82125 5.565
    11/26/2008 5.27 6.255 5.77 5.7575
    12/3/2008 4.82 6.1625 5.87875 5.71
    12/10/2008 7.8 6.5175 6.0975 5.775833333
    12/17/2008 5.05 5.735 6.09875 5.7925
    1/14/2009 6.06 5.9325 6.09375 5.824166667
    1/21/2009 9.29 7.05 6.60625 6.269166667
    1/28/2009 6.81 6.8025 6.66 6.3325
    2/4/2009 8.08 7.56 6.6475 6.585833333
    2/11/2009 13.83 9.5025 7.7175 7.23
    2/25/2009 6.4 8.78 7.915 7.330833333
    3/4/2009 3.51 7.955 7.37875 7.091666667
    3/11/2009 9.43 8.2925 7.92625 7.195833333
    3/18/2009 6.35 6.4225 7.9625 7.285833333
    3/25/2009 4.41 5.925 7.3525 7.251666667
    4/1/2009 7.09 6.82 7.3875 7.1925
    4/8/2009 5.15 5.75 7.02125 7.200833333
    4/15/2009 8.01 6.165 6.29375 7.363333333
    4/22/2009 6.58 6.7075 6.31625 7.1375
    4/29/2009 4.95 6.1725 6.49625 6.9825
    5/6/2009 3.83 5.8425 5.79625 6.628333333
    5/13/2009 4.89 5.0625 5.61375 5.883333333
    5/20/2009 3.74 4.3525 5.53 5.661666667
    5/27/2009 3.69 4.0375 5.105 5.676666667
    6/3/2009 4.79 4.2775 5.06 5.29
    6/10/2009 3.64 3.965 4.51375 5.064166667
    6/17/2009 4.61 4.1825 4.2675 5.080833333
    6/24/2009 5.1 4.535 4.28625 4.915
    7/1/2009 2.19 3.885 4.08125 4.668333333
    7/8/2009 2.47 3.5925 3.77875 4.206666667
    7/22/2009 4.02 3.445 3.81375 3.993333333
    7/29/2009 3.22 2.975 3.755 3.849166667
    8/4/2009 2.97 3.17 3.5275 3.7775
    8/11/2009 3.19 3.35 3.47125 3.635833333
    8/18/2009 2.98 3.09 3.2675 3.5725
    8/25/2009 3.27 3.1025 3.03875 3.5375
    9/1/2009 3 3.11 3.14 3.388333333
    9/8/2009 3.37 3.155 3.2525 3.365833333
    9/15/2009 5.95 3.8975 3.49375 3.4775
    9/22/2009 5.74 4.515 3.80875 3.530833333
    10/6/2009 3.32 4.595 3.8525 3.625
    10/13/2009 3.81 4.705 3.93 3.736666667
    10/20/2009 3.23 4.025 3.96125 3.670833333
    10/27/2009 3.02 3.345 3.93 3.654166667
    11/3/2009 2.35 3.1025 3.84875 3.6025
    11/10/2009 3.18 2.945 3.825 3.601666667
    11/25/2009 3.43 2.995 3.51 3.639166667
    12/1/2009 3.17 3.0325 3.18875 3.630833333
    12/8/2009 5.58 3.84 3.47125 3.845833333
    12/15/2009 3.15 3.8325 3.38875 3.8275
    12/22/2009 2.75 3.6625 3.32875 3.560833333
    12/29/2009 3.64 3.78 3.40625 3.385833333
    1/5/2010 2.29 2.9575 3.39875 3.3
    1/12/2010 3.46 3.035 3.43375 3.270833333
    1/26/2010 5.38 3.6925 3.6775 3.45
    2/2/2010 4.1 3.8075 3.79375 3.54
    2/9/2010 6.7 4.91 3.93375 3.9025
    2/16/2010 5.47 5.4125 4.22375 4.093333333
    2/23/2010 9.02 6.3225 5.0075 4.559166667
    3/2/2010 3.28 6.1175 4.9625 4.568333333
    3/9/2010 2.92 5.1725 5.04125 4.346666667
    3/23/2010 3.35 4.6425 5.0275 4.363333333
    4/4/2010 3.25 3.2 4.76125 4.405
    4/13/2010 6.14 3.915 5.01625 4.613333333
    4/20/2010 4.1 4.21 4.69125 4.764166667
    4/27/2010 3.64 4.2825 4.4625 4.779166667
    5/4/2010 3.21 4.2725 3.73625 4.598333333
    5/18/2010 4.96 3.9775 3.94625 4.67
    5/25/2010 3.31 3.78 3.995 4.3875
    6/1/2010 3.08 3.64 3.96125 4.188333333
    6/8/2010 4.05 3.85 4.06125 3.774166667
    6/15/2010 3.7 3.535 3.75625 3.809166667
    7/3/2010 3.13 3.49 3.635 3.826666667
    7/13/2010 4.73 3.9025 3.77125 3.941666667
    7/27/2010 5.87 4.3575 4.10375 4.16
    8/3/2010 3.75 4.37 3.9525 3.960833333

  22. Posted by PostIt

    Clarification, the data above is for SF single family homes.

  23. Posted by sfrenegade

    “but the November 2009 expiration and April 2010 expiration of the 2009 tax credit and its extension appear visible on it. Trailing 3 months inventory peaked in both of those months and then tanked the following month.”
    Btw, these expirations are not apples-to-apples. For pre-extention, you had to close by Nov 2009, whereas for post-extention, you had to be under contract by April 2010. Like I said, could just be a coincidence.

  24. Posted by sfrenegade

    Does anyone have an explanation for this chart from Calculated Risk that discusses SF inventory?
    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/09/lawler-again-on-existing-home-months.html
    It suggests the normal is 6-7 months and that the numbers are higher currently. One thing to note is that apparently the sales are seasonally adjusted, but the inventory is not. But are they using the true inventory that the editor alluded to above (i.e. the extra 1000 off-MLS homes)? It’s odd because this chart is based on NAR.

  25. Posted by sfrenegade

    Upon reflection, it’s probably SF MSA or something like that.S

  26. Posted by ex SF-er

    well done eddy, postit, and sfrenegade.
    great posts.
    the only thing I find of somewhat interest in this graph is that each year there is a clear seasonality with a sales trough around dec/jan, and then a steep rise through the spring that then tapers off in fall and falls down in dec/jan again
    except this year the peak was quite exaggerated in April 2010.
    I wonder what happened then?
    hmmm….
    as for the rest, looks like we have a stabilized or minimally positive/negative market right now, depending on your outlook on life.
    as always, I still prolonged pressure on SF RE so we’ll see what these look like in 3-5 years. right now there is too much political turmoil to really make an accurate RE prediction (since SF RE depends so much on whatever decisions are made in D.C right now.).

  27. Posted by sfrenegade

    Thanks, ex SF-er.
    One more thought on inventory. Does Zillow include the 1000-odd off-MLS inventory that the editor mentioned? Right now it has four categories:
    For Sale by Agent (2371)
    For Sale by Owner (10)
    Foreclosure (753)
    New Construction (9)
    That would suggest inventory overall is 3,063. The editor’s total of MLS + off-MLS would be around 2800, so it seems like this Zillow number could possibly be accurate on that measure.
    If we then use the DQ number for August sales, which is admittedly unfair for an inventory listing in mid-September, we get 3063/451 = 6.8 months of inventory.

  28. Posted by eddy

    Here is the same data showing the data YoY:
    http://www.chartgo.com/share.do?id=12b0b69caa

  29. Posted by NoeValleyJim

    Calcualted Risk probably means “Single Family Homes” when they say SF Homes.

  30. Posted by tipster

    337 new listings, 39 sales this week, according to redfin.

  31. Posted by sfrenegade

    “Calcualted Risk probably means “Single Family Homes” when they say SF Homes.”
    You’re probably right. I got confused because they occasionally break-out either SF-specific or LA-specific housing markets to show stats.

  32. Posted by sfrenegade

    Here are the September numbers:
    Month | MLS Inventory | MLS Sales | Months of Inventory | Trailing 3 Months of Inventory
    Sep-10 1797 341 5.3 4.8
    That makes the seasonal slope look steeper than ’07 and ’09, but not as steep as the sharp increase in ’08.

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