Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco fell 6% over the past two weeks and is currently running 23% under 2008 levels on a year-over-year basis (down 28% for single-family homes and down 19% for condos/TICs) but 7% above the average listed inventory levels of 2006/2007.
38% of active listings in San Francisco have undergone at least one price reduction (versus 45% a year ago) while the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned or seeking a short sale is now almost 14%.
The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).
∙ SocketSite’s San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 11/17/09 [SocketSite]
I would like to reiterate my prediction from 2.5 months ago on September 14 when the 2009 listings first fell below the 2006 listings:
“As long as we are making predictions on future trends here, I will go out on a limb and say that the EOY 2009 inventory data point will be above the EOY2008 level of 1121, and the Beginning of Year 2010 line (red/magenta line perhaps?) will also be higher than BOY2009. I think it unlikely we will pass the 2008 peak of 1789 in the interim, but expect inventory won’t fall off as much at the EOY either.”
Posted by: West Portal at September 14, 2009 5:58 PM
https://socketsite.com/archives/2009/09/socketsites_san_francisco_listed_housing_inventory_upda_32.html
I would like to reiterate my prediction from 2.5 months ago…
If only you would just go ahead and tell me EXACTLY what the inventory number will be on December 31, then I could REALLY plan for the future!
Well, looks like we’re no longer at a four-year low of inventory, as some folks were happy about. Sales volume was pretty high in October relative to earlier in the year at 553 homes, btw (http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay091119.aspx) — will they top 4K for the year?
EBGuy, how are your foreclosure numbers doing?
Editor, have you done an analysis of off-market sales this month?
And anyone have numbers for more expensive areas of the Peninsula (aka places with decent schools)?
sfrenegade, this site has good data for the peninsula:
http://www.julianalee.com/reinfo/monthly.shtml
With all the intervention from Uncle Stupid, I am surprised that we have any seasonality in this market. Why don’t we drop the charade, and have a downward- (upward-) trending straight line.
I try not to make too much of any of these numbers anymore, especially not in winter months (I never think we should make too much of winter numbers).
However, I think the last 2-3 years have conclusively proven a few things That I’ve said on Socketsite for years that many people didn’t believe/understand
1) SF real estate is heavily influenced by the national economy. (it may not move in lockstep, but it rhymes pretty darn close).
the greater SF metro area got crushed along with the rest of the US, and SF proper also did poorly when its metro suffered.
SF proper and SF prime did better than other neighborhoods/locales in the SF metro area… exactly like what has happened in almost all the other major markets from SD to Chicago to NYC.
2) SF real estate is dependent on loans, and not “all cash” buyers. All those tustafarians and immigrants and googleaires make up only a small part of SF’s real estate.
you see what happened very clearly when SF residents were shut out of the debt markets. (very low sales, significant pressure on pricing) And then you see quite clearly what happened when the government stepped in to assist (recovery of sales and less pressure on pricing)
Thus, as I’ve said for a long long time
-this process will take an agonizingly long time. “It’s like watching the paint dry on a painting of grass growing”.
and
-economic forecasting will not be accurate for some time. to know SF Real Estate’s future you must be a good political analyst AND economist. you must know two things: first, what political decisions will be made by our benevolent leaders? second, what does the future look like for our national economy.
I feel fairly confident that RE prices will continue to fall on a real basis over the next few years. But nominal price changes are impossible (IMO) to predict. Given that we still unfortunately face a currency crisis we could see housing prices rise significantly on a nominal basis while their real value plummets.
In my “best case” real estate scenario:
-Real prices fall while nominal prices rise due to further inflation.
my “worst case” real estate scenario:
-real prices fall while nominal prices ALSO fall. (because our dollar is worth less we end up spending more on things like transportation, energy, and other imported products etc which leaves less money for housing)
of the two I favor my “best case” scenario although it’s a close call. 2 years ago i wouldn’t have imagined our leaders would allow my worst case scenario, but their actions continue to encourage a currency crisis so now I just don’t know.
just be happy that they continue to enrich the bankers with YOUR money, with no benefit to you. The greatest theft of the history of Earth, and few to nobody knows it.
by the way: I don’t think one is “stupid” to buy RE just because it’s a losing proposition money-wise the next few years. Heck, I just put 6 figures into my own home this summer. The goal in this environment is to lose as little money as possible, not necessarily to make money. Many people will lose less money in RE than they would in other investments.
(as a reminder: I own my house. My house is valued at about 0.8x-1x our household income not counting the recent renovation which may or may not have added much at all. Our mortgage payments are about 1/19th of our gross income, about 1/7th of our actual checks AFTER taxes, 401k, IRA, life/health/disability insurance are taken out.)
Thanks for the link, steve. That author of that site provides quite a bit of detail on sales activity — reductions in sale prices, pending sales, drops out of escrow/withdrawals, and closed sales. Also, she provides a lot of data on houses that sell — including original list prices.
sfrenegade, my pleasure. her site is often the fastest way (without full MLS access) to get prices on closed deals. it is just too bad she doesn’t archive old months.
EBGuy, how are your foreclosure numbers doing?
Pent up housing supply appears to be slightly down from two weeks ago. Currently, 1686 homes are in some state of foreclosure (NODs, NOTS, bank owned)in Ess Eff. Two weeks ago we were at 1695, which was a big jump from 1609 four weeks ago. Standard disclosure about noise in the data, blah, blah, blah….
I’m still going with magenta.
ex SF-er: You present yourself as being confidently on top of things. Yet what you say adds up to nothing.
What, in actual dollars, is your house “value,” your “household income,” the cost of the recent “renovation,” your “mortgage payment” (1/19th of gross income) and the “rate of interest” you are paying. If you will provide a “lump sum figure” for your 401k, IRA, life,health, disability, we can calculate 1/7th of the total.
One of the reasons for the financial mess being experienced today around the world is the virtual abstraction of money by using percentages, percentage points, ratios, and a myriad of deliberately obfuscating and irrelevant data. This led to the over supply of “smart” financial advisors, the overvaluation of “assets/paper” and the subsequent polarization of wealth. In other words exploitation.
The greatest theft of the history of Earth, and few to nobody knows it.
Greater than the Europeans stealing a whole continent or two from the Native Americans? Greater than the millions of Jews killed and their property stolen during the Holocaust? Greater than the slaves stolen from Africa and then sold into bondage in America? Greater than the theft of the Kulack farms by Stalin?
I don’t think so.
“[This bailout theft is not as bad as the holocaust theft]”
NVJ, each thing you mention involved genocide primarily, the theft being wholly secondary, almost an excuse to commit the genocide. It would be unusual for murderers to *not* plunder those they slaugher, don’t you agree? The crime in your examples is the genocide, not the theft.
You at once lose credibility and minimize those horrible events at the same time. Nice trick, but your SF-sized white guilt is showing. You mentioned Stalin, but not a single mention of asian atrocities (e.g., Japan -> China)?
The converse (theft without genocide) happens all the time, of course, and it’s obvious that’s what ex-SF is talking about.
How are we supposed to believe your links/statements cheerleading muni, SF public schools, evil cars, real health care reform, or how the economy is bouncing back because of three php jobs you know about?
Although I think I’m starting to understand how you can accept those things, if your holocaust/bailout analogy is any indication.
How you could have even written that while sober (?) is beyond me 🙂
That’s the problem with cheerleading, you eventually paint yourself into a corner. But to compare this bailout to the genocidal holocaust without irony requires an awful lot of paint!
happy new year everyone!
Yeah, NVJ, no Armenian genocide? Come on already man! Be encyclopedaic, or be psychoanalyzed!