SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 9-17-07 (www.SocketSite.com)
The post Labor Day bump in Active single family, condo, and TIC listings in San Francisco has materialized as expected (up 24% over the past two weeks). And while listed housing inventory is off by 5.4% on a year-over-year basis, we’ll note that reduced listings are up 29% and reported sales volume was down 13.8% in August (again, year-over-year).
Quantitative comparisons aside, we’ll also note a distinct difference in the quality of listings (as in higher now) versus a year ago as well. And yes, that’s subjective.
San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 9/04/07 [SocketSite]
San Francisco Sales Activity: Reported Sales Volume Takes A Little Hit [SocketSite]

31 thoughts on “SocketSite’s San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 9/17/07”
  1. Don’t follow your “quality of lisings” statement? At first I thought quality of lisings = more $$, but that’s not subjective…
    [Editor’s Note: Price aside, we’re seeing a higher caliber of active listings (in terms of condition, location, and design) versus the same time last year. But again, it’s subjective.]

  2. I showed 219 Brannan 3A 995k on Saturday. Seven groups came through. Good response to the unit although it’s not staged or cleaned up that much. And no particular objections to the price, or the building.

  3. There are also quite a few units in the Bridgeview for sale and for rent listed on Craigslist. How can you tell from the Craigslist (or other non real estate industry sites) if the for sale properties listed are part of the MLS? Do they usually include the MLS # in the ad?

  4. So if MLS is not a public system and we all know the realtors are pulling a fast on us by manipulating the numbers listed, is there a public system in existance today to show actual sales figures? I am thinking put together by the Tax Assesors office?

  5. I’d like to second Stu’s question: why the increased level of listings in the fall?
    I can only think of a few possibilities:
    1. the number of listings goes up because sales rate is going down. in other words, same # of people putting their house up for sale, but less are selling so inventory goes up
    or
    2. during the summer most listings are not on the MLS, as they don’t need to be. Then after labor day the real estate agents/sellers “give in” and list on the MLS
    it would seem odd to want to list in the fall after school starts.. harder to move then… and who likes to move in the winter, yech!
    anyone else have hypothesis?

  6. “Why does the number of listings go up in the fall?”
    Summer vacations create a backlog of new listings at the same time sales are slowing down with kids starting a new school year, holidays, etc.

  7. I thought increased listings in fall was due to no one wanting to move during the holidays/bad weather of Nov./Dec./Jan. Sept. and Oct. see a bump for people wanting to sell before the end of the year, then the listings fall off dramatically.

  8. Unlike most cities, the school year has no bearing on the SF real estate market since a) there are relatively few families with school children and b) those that do have children aren’t affected by a move since the SFUSD doesn’t assign children to schools based on cachement areas. So both private and public school kids often get transported across the city anyway.
    It seems like Labor Day to Thanksgiving is traditionally the busiest time in the SF market.

  9. “It seems like Labor Day to Thanksgiving is traditionally the busiest time in the SF market”
    The closed sales figures don’t support that notion:- even in the ‘hottest’ years sales have dropped very significantly from a July high to a January low.

  10. “Interesting number of units have suddenly popped up in The Brannan reminding me of this earlier SocketSite article: https://socketsite.com/archives/2006/09/the_brannan_four_months_later.html
    This after a slow summer in that building.”
    I noticed there’s still several units at both the Brannan and Watermark selling in the $1100-$1500/SqFt range. Some of these are premium top floor units with bay or city views.
    But given the drastic slowdown in sales and the widening mortgage mess, I wonder if these units are priced unrealistically given the current environment??

  11. Looking on Craigslist (trying to help an out of town friend relocate to SF this fall), I’ve been seeing Brannan and one or two Watermark units for lease and/or looking for a roommate share. According to this article, sellers are having a hard time letting go of bubble prices and the CAR has urged realtors to refuse listings from unrealistic sellers. But the article mainly focuses on low to mid range properties and not higher end listings. So your guess is as good as mine.
    http://www.pe.com/business/local/stories/PE_Biz_D_appleton-young07.33453a8.html

  12. “Why does the number of listings go up in the fall?”
    The greatest number of listings come on the market during the fall, followed by spring. It’s not “because sales rate is going down” or that “during the summer most listings are not on the MLS, as they don’t need to be. Then after labor day the real estate agents/sellers “give in” and list on the MLS.”
    Take sales out of the equation and just look at new listings. An agent informed me last week 100 new listings hit MLS whereas the previous month didn’t see 100 new listings. The explanation is pretty basic – summer vacation. On any given week during the summer a good chunk of the population is on vacation (my commute is a breeze June through august). If you don’t have to sell, you’d want the largest available audience of prospective buyers coming through your open house, so summer would be one time to avoid listing.
    Fall is followed by the holidays and winter, a time most don’t want to buy or sell if they don’t have to and buyers don’t flock to open homes when it’s cold and rainy. So you’re next option (as likely explained by your listing agent) is to list in Spring.
    I know it’s not as fun as conspiracy theories but it’s a pretty basic explanation.

  13. i know of a few properties over here in south beach that were yanked off the market and will now be rented since they couldn’t get any serious offers. i wonder how much of that is going on and how the bump in new listings is a lot fewer than most were expecting because of this. if that rental market on fire article is true, they are better off pulling them off the market anyway.

  14. If a lot of sellers take the property off the listing because they couldn’t get the offer they wanted, wouldn’t it mean harder time for buyers?
    1. Already lower inventory than last year. Considering the sale cycle is getting longer, it means fresh listings too. Buyers have few choices.
    2. Price is not dropping (yet). When seller cannot get the asking price, they just wait.
    3. Mortgage rate is almost 1% higher YOY. For the same price, that means the monthly payment is about 10% higher.

  15. ^ Not really. One less seller means also means one less buyer. Inventory is only nominally lower than last year plus lots of new construction. Prices not dropping? What do you call those incentives? Higher mortgage rate will impact sellers more than buyers.

  16. I’ve been seeing some listings for ‘rent to own’ or lease purchase options.
    1. What is this? It kind of sounds like some kind of layaway gimmic you see in a pawn shop.
    2. Do these properties get included in the MLS inventory or rental inventory or not counted anywhere at all?

  17. The renting listings for 170OffThird look more like investor units rather than the developer giving up on sales? Anybody got any data points on this and beyond the infamous 188 King, is this a trend in the new buildings in the city that aren’t moving?

  18. “One less seller means also means one less buyer.”
    For people who really want to buy, the first concern is to find a house you want. What’s the use of less competition when there is no inventory?
    “Inventory is only nominally lower than last year”
    Inventory number is the result of two factors – # of new listings + # of old listings. Since the sales rate is slower, that means # of old listings is larger, so the # of new listings is lower.
    “plus lots of new construction.”
    Yes, but some people are only interested in SFR, not condos. Plus, there were a lot of new constructions last year too.
    “What do you call those incentives?”
    The incentives are only related to new constructions. And even with those, the incentive is minor comparing to the total price. Also, look at the major ones like Infinity. Would you call the price dropped? It may have some incentives from the TOP, but price certainly has increased a lot from when they just started selling.
    “Higher mortgage rate will impact sellers more than buyers.”
    I am talking about buyers. I am not saying the sellers aren’t affected – if they cannot sell, they cannot sell. However, I am talking specifically about buyers.
    Use any online mortgage calculator. If you bought a house last year at 6% mortgage rate, your monthly payment is about the same as buying today at 10% discount with a 7% mortgage. And SF’s price certainly hasn’t decreased 10% unless you want to live in Bay View. Even those incentives at new constructions doesn’t add up to 10% of the price.
    Forget about sellers. The question is, how is the market condition benefiting buyers?

  19. “Use any online mortgage calculator. If you bought a house last year at 6% mortgage rate, your monthly payment is about the same as buying today at 10% discount with a 7% mortgage. And SF’s price certainly hasn’t decreased 10% unless you want to live in Bay View. Even those incentives at new constructions doesn’t add up to 10% of the price.”
    You sound like a used car dealer. “the total price doesn’t matter. only the monthly payment matters.”
    I would rather buy a 1Million condo at 7% than the same condo for $1.2 million at 6%.
    the total cost does matter as you can always refi at a later date.

  20. “I know it’s not as fun as conspiracy theories but it’s a pretty basic explanation”
    KK:
    I never said anything about a “conspiracy” nor did I even mean to imply it.
    I simply was wondering if the higher inventory was due to slower sales… the other option is more new listings…
    new listings could be due to the fact that during the summer months people don’t feel the need to use the MLS, but in the winter it’s harder to sell so they decide to list on the MLS…
    anyway, I wasn’t trying to advocate that there was any conspiracy…
    I simply didn’t realize that more people spontaneously list their homes in September and October.. that is an anomaly in terms of country-wide trends.
    it is tough though, because it seems that a lot of units for sale are not on the MLS… I’ve always assumed it was because the market is very “hot” so people didn’t feel the need…

  21. I was referring more to a previous chain where the consensus seemed to be that agents and sellers were conspiring to keep listings off the MLS in order to paint a rosier picture of the market.
    “I simply was wondering if the higher inventory was due to slower sales… the other option is more new listings…”
    Scroll up to the graph, year over year listings are off (slightly). Total inventories are up but they’re always up in the fall. Too bad socketsite doesn’t have data going back a few years to demonstrate how long this has occured and to what extent.
    Anyway, inventory is a combination of existing listings, new listings and the sales rate. If sales are down and year over year inventory is down slightly (5.4% per SS), that must mean the rate of new listings is off.

  22. not sure why my post got yanked, but am reposting.
    Does anyone really think that a single intelligent person willing to pay $4200 for a 2bdroom condo at 170 Off Third

  23. “170 Off Third is now renting!”
    I am a resident at 170 Off Third and I can state that this unit is definitely being rented by an investor. The building has I think a 15% rental cap too, but I am not sure how that gets enforced. We recently had an HOA meeting with the developer (seller) in attendance and he confirmed that around 60% of the units have “sold” meaning closed financing and 75% of the units are “sold”, as in reserved.

  24. I’d be amazed if they get anywhere near $4200 at 170. Avalon at Mission Bay website is advertising “Great Springtime Specials” on two bedrooms from $3200-$4000 and three bedrooms from $4300. Right up the street and a much better building.

  25. Renters are up pretty big in SF this yr. Close to 15-20% YoY in nice neighborhoods, and people are lining up to pay. Kind of scary.

  26. “Renters are up pretty big in SF this yr. Close to 15-20% YoY in nice neighborhoods”
    Another 80-85% increase in those nice neighborhoods and it will almost make as much sense to buy as it does to rent! From an investment standpoint at least.

  27. I calculate the listing/sales ratio or months supply has increased from 1.8 on July 18 to 2.4 on September 17. I didn’t calc for 2006 but it’s a nice direction for buyers in any case.

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