CFAH

The sales volume of listed single-family homes in San Francisco fell 5% on a year-over-year basis in April, down 10 sales from 201 in 2010 to 191 in 2011 as the median sales price fell 8 percent, from $785,000 in April 2010 to $725,000 in April 2011.
As we’ve written following year-over-year median price declines of up to 13 percent over the past three months, expect proponents of representing changes in median as changes in value to quickly find religion (at least for a month or two).
With respect to condos, listed sales volume increased 21 percent on a year-over-year basis in April, up 40 sales from 191 in 2010 to 231 in 2011 as the median sales price remained flat at $670,000.
As plugged-in people know listed housing inventory ended April down 1 percent on a year-over-year basis, up 4 percent for single-family homes, down 3 percent for condos.
NOTE: We’re in the process of restating March results as the ReReport misreported March condo sales in their April report.
Real Estate Matket Trends Report [rereport.com]
SF Listed Sales Volume Up 15% In January Driven By Low-Cost Areas [SocketSite]
Medians Are Up, But Don’t Confuse That With Increasing “Prices” [SocketSite]
San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: May 2, 2011 [SocketSite]

Comments from Plugged-In Readers

  1. Posted by Paul Hwang

    this includes some new construction that is listed and does not include unlisted new construction correct?
    [Editor’s Note: Correct, listed sales and listed inventory. Recorded sales includes unlisted sales, for which there’s roughly 600 units of unsold inventory currently on the market in San Francisco.]

  2. Posted by sfrenegade

    Here is an update on inventory:
    Columns are, as usual, month, inventory as determined by SocketSite at mid-month, sales as determined by rereport, months of inventory, trailing 3 months of inventory, trailing 12 months of inventory
    May-07 1091 529 2.1
    Jun-07 1152 513 2.2
    Jul-07 1157 470 2.5 2.3
    Aug-07 1187 464 2.6 2.4
    Sep-07 1408 346 4.1 3.0
    Oct-07 1532 452 3.4 3.3
    Nov-07 1393 408 3.4 3.6
    Dec-07 1077 355 3.0 3.3
    Jan-08 1053 215 4.9 3.8
    Feb-08 1159 292 4.0 4.0
    Mar-08 1329 318 4.2 4.3
    Apr-08 1381 382 3.6 3.9 3.3
    May-08 1491 478 3.1 3.6 3.4
    Jun-08 1496 426 3.5 3.4 3.5
    Jul-08 1470 478 3.1 3.2 3.6
    Aug-08 1388 393 3.5 3.4 3.7
    Sep-08 1544 332 4.7 3.8 3.7
    Oct-08 1789 381 4.7 4.3 3.8
    Nov-08 1788 241 7.4 5.6 4.1
    Dec-08 1405 265 5.3 5.8 4.3
    Jan-09 1189 141 8.4 7.1 4.6
    Feb-09 1500 192 7.8 7.2 4.9
    Mar-09 1648 238 6.9 7.7 5.2
    Apr-09 1622 277 5.9 6.9 5.4
    May-09 1685 328 5.1 6.0 5.5
    Jun-09 1630 389 4.2 5.1 5.6
    Jul-09 1569 452 3.5 4.3 5.6
    Aug-09 1352 495 2.7 3.5 5.6
    Sep-09 1448 392 3.7 3.3 5.5
    Oct-09 1460 435 3.4 3.3 5.4
    Nov-09 1346 395 3.4 3.5 5.0
    Dec-09 1131 412 2.7 3.2 4.8
    Jan-10 909.5 226 4.0 3.4 4.4
    Feb-10 1116 247 4.5 3.8 4.2
    Mar-10 1361 414 3.3 3.9 3.9
    Apr-10 1491 317 4.7 4.2 3.8
    May-10 1599 480 3.3 3.8 3.6
    Jun-10 1697 446 3.8 3.9 3.6
    Jul-10 1799 385 4.7 3.9 3.7
    Aug-10 1594 360 4.4 4.3 3.8
    Sep-10 1797 341 5.3 4.8 4.0
    Oct-10 1936 372 5.2 5.0 4.1
    Nov-10 1834 326 5.6 5.4 4.3
    Dec-10 1408 404 3.5 4.8 4.4
    Jan-11 1255 275 4.6 4.6 4.4
    Feb-11 1399 276 5.1 4.4 4.5
    Mar-11 1443 409 3.5 4.4 4.5
    Apr-11 1551 422 3.7 4.1 4.4
    A few oddities I noticed, however. The original report for rereport said 188 SFRs and 129 condos sold for April 2010. Now it says 201/191. Why is that? It looks like March 2011 got restated to 203/250 also instead of 203/206. March 2010 got restated too — 220/222 from 210/204.
    Do I need to start keeping two sets of numbers? Which is correct?

  3. Posted by sfrenegade

    Must have missed the note… But they screwed it up two years in a row?

  4. Posted by DanRH

    Listed inventory is down y over y? that surprised me.

  5. Posted by Skirunman

    It will be interesting to see how the lack of newly built condos will effect these numbers in the near future: http://www.helenazaludova.com/home/?p=1336&ref=nf
    In 2007 we had almost 3k new condos on the market and now we are under 1k quickly with nothing substantial on the short term horizon.

  6. Posted by The Milkshake of Despair

    When the ground breaks on any of the currently stalled but entitled condo developments that will be a good indicator that the market is starting to come back. Neither developers nor banks want to risk bringing their product online in a weak market.

  7. Posted by EBGuy

    Many of the new condos were sold based on speculative future prices. They are now being brought to market in a timed release fashion (aka pent up supply). See, for example, 647 Grand View or, for that matter, ORH. Yes, eventually we run out of speculators, but for now…

  8. Posted by Michael E

    There are several projects already being built in South Beach/Mission Bay. They include the Martin project on 3rd and 20th(?), Madrone (Radiance II), a small project at 2nd and King and another Martin project at 3rd and Townsend. I think 1 of these is affordable housing. The Madrone project is the most significant IMHO. I was pleasantly surprised to see it start up.

  9. Posted by anon

    not to mention the projects being built in South Beach – one next to Momo’s (2nd and King) and another on Townsend (between 2nd and 3rd).

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