San Francisco Listed Sales Volume In August: Down 10% YOYSeptember 8, 2009
While sales volume for listed single-family homes in San Francisco fell 5% on a year-over-year basis in August, condo sales volume fell 16.5% (176 transactions in August 2008 versus 147 in 2009), down 16% from July versus a 10% drop from July to August in 2008.
Combined listed single-family and condo sales volume dropped 10% YOY in August.
With respect to condos, the most pronounced drop in listed sales volume occurred in District 9, dropping 25% (from 67 sales in August of 2008 to 50 sales in August of 2009) on a 14% drop in median sales price from $700,000 to $600,000. Once again, think (and either thank or curse) new development sales offices discounting and stealing share.
On a percentage basis, the biggest drop in sales volume occured in District 5, down 35% from 29 to 19 on year-over-year basis in August on a 2% increase in median sales price but a 10% drop in average.
∙ Condos and Lofts August ‘04, ‘06, ‘08, ‘09 [sanfranciscoschtuff.com]
∙ Listed San Francisco Single-Family Home Sales In August: Down 5% [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Listed Sales Volume In July: Down 13% YOY [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Real Estate Districts: Maps And Neighborhoods [SocketSite]
Comments from Plugged-In Readers
condos are tough to report because the data is skewed. if new developments do not enter the sales into the MLS, they are not included in this list (as all data was taken from the MLS). so, the data is unfortunately incomplete and i would assume there were actually more transactions (we all know was assuming does), but to find the true number of transactions, one would have to do some serious digging around all (not just MLS) recorded transactions (tax record, etc).
Thanks again to Garrett for posting this info on a timely basis. He’s got a good blog over there. Check it out (no, I don’t know Garrett from Adam)!
We’re now entering the annual slow period for sales, and listings should start to pick up over the next couple of months as well. SF has not seen the YOY sales pickup that just about every other part of California saw through the Spring and Summer. It will be interesting to see how things develop through the Fall and Winter. We’re already below low 2008 numbers to date, but late 2008 and early 2009 really saw a slowdown, so the YOY listing and sales numbers for the next several months should give some good clues as to where things are heading. I think the key factors are what the govt does with the $8000 new buyer tax credit and the higher FHA/conforming limits, which have been the driving force at the low end, but which both expire soon without further govt action — the higher-end continues to stagnate as those measures don’t really affect sales there.
I still wish someone, anywhere, would put out numbers broken out by price range. It sure looks like all the action has been at the extreme low end, but it’s hard to get anything concrete other than individual “apples,” which are also invaluable and which I don’t think you see anywhere but here.
thanks again for the positive shout-out.
what do you mean by “put out numbers broken out by price range” i may be able to help you…
Garrett, poking around sites that focus on other geographic areas, I see numbers (sales volume, listing numbers, months of inventory, etc.) broken out by price range rather than just by SFR or condo, e.g.:
i see. so, you would like to see some stats in price bands rather than districts. i may be able to track down some data for you, but not sure this comment strand is an appropriate forum to do so.
feel free to email me: firstname.lastname@example.org
For what it’s worth: 4 Fridays this year, 5 last year. So down 10% is really flat, a bit up for houses, I suspect a bit up for condos, and probably way down for TICs, had they been broken out of the condo numbers.
And I suspect we sort of zig and zag from here until the end of the year. Some ups, some down. Especially since the end of last year was the start of the real problems, so the YOY comparisons are easier to hit, and the sellers have a much better sense of reality than they did at the end of last year.
By the way, Garrett also has a keen eye for smoking out the best happenings in the upcoming weekend, and he posts them on his blog.
Regarding those low District 5 numbers — is it worth pointing out that there’s very little stuff going on the market in the first place?
It would be interesting to compare those YOY sales numbers with the YOY inventory numbers to see what the rate of absorption is.
Frankly, the little inventory that one finds in District 5 now is rather hideous. I guess that ugly stuff would sell in a hot market, but if it’s a buyers market now, what buyer wants to buy ugly?
Put quality inventory on the market at a good price, and it will sell quickly.
Re: D5, there are now three SFRs in 5-E essentially priced at top dollar. They’ve all hit the market in the last week, and two of them just today. Will they benefit from the relative lack of inventory? Are people resigned to the fact that the better parts of 5-E demand mid 2Ms and higher for good SFRs? Or will they all require significant price reducitons? I’m very curious to see what happens.
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