Inventory of listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco increased 2.0% over the past two weeks to 1,443 active listings. Over the past five years listed inventory levels have increased an average of 6.5% in San Francisco during the same two weeks.
Current listed inventory is up 6% on a year-over-year basis, up 15% versus the average of the past five years, up 57% as compared to 2006. On the demand side of the equation, listed sales were up 1.5 percent in February with 276 properties sold as the median sale price fell 7 percent year-over-year for single-family homes, down 13 percent for condos.
The inventory of single-family homes for sale in San Francisco is up 20% on a year-over-year basis to 610 homes while listed condo inventory is actually down 6% to 833.
The percentage of all active listings in San Francisco have undergone at least one price reduction remains at 30% as the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned (77) or seeking a short sale (214) fell to 20%, up 1% on an absolute basis over the past two weeks.
The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).
∙ San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: February 28, 2011 [SocketSite]
∙ SF Listed Sales Volume Up 1.5% In Feb As Medians Continue To Fall [SocketSite]
why is inventory of SFH’s up while condo inventory is down?
My guess is that there was a huge buildup of new condo construction during the bubble, which has now mostly been absorbed, while there was little building of SFH’s so the inventory there is more due to overall market conditions.
Part of it – and this is merely an anecdotal observation – may be that most newer condo owners are priced in forever and can’t sell without taking a huge hit that they probably can’t afford. Many SFRs were bought pre-bubble, so those people still have equity and can sell at 20% less than bubble peak and still be OK. But a lot of condos are in Soma, and were built during the bubble. Tough to sell at $700 psf when you bought new at $900 psf just a few years ago, so they pull the unit and try to rent it out instead. I’ve seen this with several Soma condos over the past few months.
Really a mixed report, still elevated over the average but down from the worst year, and also smaller increase then average. No wonder its not drawing many comments.
Certainly not the soaring inventory many were predicting. The movement since that start of year looks more like 2006 than the past 3 years.
“Certainly not the soaring inventory many were predicting”
Hence the little comments. “Less” to gloat over for some here, I s’pose.
“Current listed inventory is up 6% on a year-over-year basis, up 15% versus the average of the past five years, up 57% as compared to 2006.”
Fine, it’s not “soaring” but just continuing at high levels, while sales remain very low. Hence, prices continue to fall.
“The movement since that start of year looks more like 2006 than the past 3 years.”
The “movement” might look like 2006 but the inventory levels are a heckuva lot higher.
More of he latest SS bull faulty logic – “it’s not as bad as the worst case scenario so therefore the bears were totally wrong.”
Interesting, how about this faulty logic: saying ‘less for the bears to gloat over is claiming that the bears were totally wrong’.
What it’s looking like is the “new normal” (for now anyway). 2006 and 2006 were bubble peak years when inventory wasn’t keeping up with demand. At this point we’re just tracking the 2008-2010 pattern.
I agree that the SFH vs condo distinction is important, and it makes sense that there are fewer because so many condos were built recently and the owners are “stuck”. In perusing the listings in my neighborhoods of interest (Dist 5), I’m also seeing increasing numbers of SFH’s that are long term holds. I think that it is finally sinking in that values are not increasing any time soon, and therefore people who want to sell (and can afford to sell) are doing so. That’s ony anecdotal, mind you.
On the plus side, the events in Japan have investors flocking to bonds, which is lowering interest rates and should result in lower mortgage rates for a bit. On the down side, the events in Japan have the equities markets tanking, which has sliced some down payments.
Pendings continue to be middlin’ so I wouldn’t look for any big sales volume boosts in the next several months.
Overall I think the report is fairly neutral, but most of the details seem slightly more bearish than bullish. To me this is the key part:
“The inventory of single-family homes for sale in San Francisco is up 20% on a year-over-year basis to 610 homes…”
Inventory up 20% for SFH! It’s certainly too early to say anything conclusive, but that is not a particularly bullish indication. But on the other hand maybe it climbs like that every year at this time.
Also, inventory up 2% while sales up 1.5% means inventory is outpacing sales. It’s certainly fairly mild, but again, not a bullish indicator.
At this point we’re just tracking the 2008-2010 pattern.
That’s right. Also 610 SFRs, 363 in D1-9, is still not a lot of SFRs on the market. Mentioning 2006 and not mentioning 2009 was bizarre.
“Also 610 SFRs, 363 in D1-9, is still not a lot of SFRs on the market.”
So what’s a lot and when did it happen?
A lot was late winter, early spring 2009. October/November 2008. You can probably search the site for the condo to SFR breakdowns. This D10 to D1-9 fact is pretty striking.
[Editor’s Note: Listed single-family inventory was actually higher in October 2010 (801) than at any time in 2009 or 2008. At this time of the year in 2007 there were under 350 single-family homes listed in all of San Francisco which includes D10.]
Also last October
Yes, D10 is certainly doing far worse than the rest of SF, I suspect that will continue for a while.
But what were the numbers? You said a lot and still haven’t said what a lot is. Especially d10 vs. the rest.
The chart in this thread depicts numbers, lyqwyd. You can probably search the site for past peak breakdowns between SFR and condo.
Note that there appears to be a seasonality pattern in the inventory data. Consider that when comparing a March number to October of other years.
Re: anon.ed. I think that lyqwyd is asking what inventory level you consider to be “a lot”.
On another topic, Treasury appears to be trying to push forth with a settlement over bank servicing practices before the CFPB has formal input in the process. I think that CFPB was a prime advocate for principal writedowns, so that outcome seems a bit less likely now.
tc_sf said:
I think that lyqwyd is asking what inventory level you consider to be “a lot”.
which is correct, that is exactly what I am asking, as well as once you (anon) provide that number, when has that number occurred in the past.
As tc_sf points out, inventory is seasonal. What I’m really looking for is when the number of SFH’s for sale in d1-9 has been significantly higher in late winter to early spring.
Since you (anon) made the claim that this is not a lot, it is your responsibility to provide supporting evidence.
Well I took a quick look at October 2010’s socketsite inventory numbers and it broke down as 801 SFR and 1,184 condos. Tried to look up the March 2009 numbers but the editor was only listing percentages back then and not including the number of units.
Since you (anon) made the claim that this is not a lot, it is your responsibility to provide supporting evidence.
I’m not interested in wasting time in order to provide remedial instruction each and every time I say something basic. 363 SFRs across nine districts. Think about that, first. Then if that doesn’t seem relatively low to you, you have some catching up to do. Also, this “blog as research paper” meme can die a quick death for all I care. Sometimes you only have time to voice your opinion. Others can pick up the thread later, or not (thanks Rillion). My point was spot on either way.
You’re wasting your breath asking fluj to support anything he says. No big deal as this is just an anonymous blog and anyone can say anything he or she wants. Of course, fluj always insists on conclusive proof of anything anyone else says or he leaps to the conclusion that the absolute opposite must be true. No criticism of the “blog as research paper meme” when he is the one demanding that others support their assertions!
Here is a start: “Current listed inventory is up 6% on a year-over-year basis, up 15% versus the average of the past five years, up 57% as compared to 2006.” But, one can always say “up is down, in is out, and right is wrong” and then state that others simply “have some catching up to do” and you were “spot on” if others don’t accept that at face value.
Here are some graphs showing inventory going back to 2007:
http://www.altosresearch.com/paragon/latest/paragon_market_update_zip_based_cmid_55_zipd_none.html
SFR inventory certainly appears to be relatively high for this time of year. The peak months are still a few months away – should have a clearer picture then.
@A.T. I know, I know… I usually just ignore anything he writes, but every once in a while when I don’t have anything better to do I like to engage these types of posters… I guess sometimes I get a kick out of it!
It’s kind of like those Nigerian oil money emails we all get. Normally I immediately delete them, but every once in a while I respond and see how long I can keep them responding…
^^^ Oh mon, so you are the one wasting the Milkshake’s time. Rent is high in Lagos and every e-mail you keep stringing me along on is one less that I can use to keep prospecting.
I’m still trying hard to move this $2.5M out of the country so if anyone can seed an American account with just $40k I will be glad to share 10% of the proceeds. Please write and we can arrange to do business.
Sincerely
Mr. Gomal Milkshake O’Despair
Post Box 3288
Lagos, Nigeria
Shouldn’t that be Crown Prince Gomal Milkshake O’Despair?
You rate AT as worthwhile and you respond to those Nigerial oil money emails, do ya?
I think we’re done here.
“I think we’re done here”
I wish that were true…
Anyway, I did have fun with you today… see you soon!
Heck, I made over a hundred thousand dollars when some Nigerian offered me that deal – sent to my AOL dial-up account a few years ago – and I only had to front $5000. Pretty nice return! I was going to put it down on a bigger SF home, but no way was I going to fall for the wild promises that “SF real estate only goes up” that were being bandied about. I’ll stick with those more trustworthy Nigerian deal intermediaries . . .
“up 15% vs. the average”. Uh huh. Take out ’06 and ’07 and we have a far less interesting story. i especially like how the sentence is written in an escalating way making it sound worse and worse when in fact there has been very little change for over 3 years. Oh never mind…. another 3 years of writing the same paragraph lead to this chart should make the bears happy campers even though that 15% will keep declining – because at least it ends with “up 57% as compared to 2006”. That will never get old
hangemhi does get one point right. We are now in our fourth year of the SF market decline. It will get better and move back toward the 2006-07 line someday, but not any time soon, I predict.
I would imagine unlisted new construction condo inventory is down significantly since this was put together in 07.
https://socketsite.com/archives/2007/02/socketsites_complete_inventory_index_cii_q1_2007.html
If these numbers were included in the chart above, would we not be quite close to if not below 07 condo #’s?
would be very intersting to see an update of the Cii. Not holding my breatjh though.I thinksomeone (Spencer?) used to request this every month!
Pent up supply appears to be holding steady over the past couple of weeks. Currently, 1538 homes are in some state of foreclosure (NODs, NOTS, bank owned) in Ess Eff. This is compared to 1565 homes two weeks ago. Standard disclosures about noise in the data; information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.