San Francisco Listed Inventory: 12/14/09 (www.SocketSite.com)
Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco fell 11% over the past two weeks (versus a 15% drop for the same two weeks over the past three years) and is currently running 20% under 2008 levels on a year-over-year basis (down 27% for single-family homes and down 14% for condos/TICs) but 13% above the average listed inventory levels of 2006/2007.
33% of active listings in San Francisco have undergone at least one price reduction (versus 45% a year ago) while the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned or seeking a short sale has risen to 15%.
The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).
SocketSite’s San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 12/01/09 [SocketSite]

18 thoughts on “SocketSite’s San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 12/14/09”
  1. It’s going to go above the 2008 numbers next year in 2010 once all of those wonderful incentives burn out.

  2. I wonder if this is the statmate effect
    At least among the people I know in my age group most are stuck in suboptimal situations in condos, townhomes and TICs. These were suppose to be the “starters”
    Trading up is now dead
    Familes growing, downpayments are gone but they can’t sell so they are dealing with it

  3. It’s going to go above the 2008 numbers next year in 2010 once all of those wonderful incentives burn out.
    Only if our leaders allow the incentives to burn out. The lesson with cash for clunkers was not lost on them. (sales plummeted as soon as the program went away)
    Government will continue to manipulate the markets until they are forced to stop by our creditors. Not a second before. (that’s not technically true… they may stop earlier if the big banks think it’s in their interests. Our current government is 99.99999999999% captured by big finance).
    it’s just like the debt ceiling. whenever we get near it we just raise it. Brilliant!
    conservative estimates are that mortgage rates will rise 0.4 to 1% when the Fed stops buying MBS securities. RE is struggling with 4.75% mortgages. it almost had a heart attack with 6% mortgages. what do you think mama govt will try to do?
    I’ve said this for some time now, but forget trying to analyze the RE market using economics. Forecasting SF RE requires an understanding of DC and Beijing politics.

  4. yes, i think bunk bed sales will skyrocket this year.
    No joke; I know a couple of folks with kids stuck in 2bed(+)/1bath homes that were bought for $+/-500k around peak. They’re the types that won’t default, but they’re not going anywhere soon. The overheated market stole buyers from the future…
    Lenders and asset-management companies with so-called shadow inventories of bank-owned properties are asking that the properties be readied to be put up for sale early next year, said Rick Turley, president of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in the Bay Area. “I would say overall, we are expecting a great number of (bank-owned properties) to come into the marketplace in January,” he said. “They had been in some kind of holding pattern. The shadow inventory may be coming out of the shadows.”
    Don’t worry, though, I’m sure this wont happen in Ess Eff…

  5. Stimulation is going to continue until the markets don’t need it any more. The USG and banks don’t want massive defaults and will do basically anything to migitate RE losses.

  6. EBG- so far it hasn’t happened in esss efff (%wise there are ‘alot’ more foreclosures in SF but raw #’s are still very, very low.). And guess what? They will remain extremely low in 2010, 2011 whatever. “we’re still special” will prove to be correct next year… Just like -40 to -50% price drops in real SF proved to be wishful thinking by the bear brigade. The worse of it is practically over.

  7. Wow, EBG quotes a Realtor without calling him a “relitter”. Oh wait, you found a quote you could agree with. I guess we’ll have to wait for another comment for your usual insults.

  8. Diemos,
    have to ask,,,is your crystal ball still tuned to the channel that says 50% off everything in the City?

  9. Pent up housing supply appears to be down from two weeks ago. Currently, 1619 homes are in some state of foreclosure (NODs, NOTS, bank owned)in Ess Eff. Two weeks ago we were at 1686, which was a big jump from 1609 six weeks ago. Did pent up supply peak four weeks ago at 1695? Stay tuned. Standard disclosure about noise in the data, you know the drill.

  10. It’s still tuned to the channel that say that that’s what prices should be in the absence of government intervention on a scale never before seen in this country.
    But I knew that such intervention was a possibility, I just didn’t think the forex markets would let them get away with it.
    Anyway, I wouldn’t be a very good “mad prophet of doom” if I was constantly shifting with the breeze and hemming and hawing and throwing in caveats. I made my prediction and I stand by it. You’ll just have to wait for Jan 1, 2012 for my comeuppance.
    In the meantime I’m honing my fallback position. Did you know that prices are already off 50% when measured in gold?

  11. Speaking of pent up supply, here’s a foreclosure of the week: 280 Union St (1,325 sq.ft., 2 bedrooms). Bought in 2002 for $1,050,000 and refied for $1million in 2006. The bank took it back for $850k on Nov. 19. I believe this to be a nice part of town, but maybe a REALTOR® can help us out. WaMu appears to have refinanced a disproportionate number of (failing) $1+million Ess Eff homes.

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