CFAH

San Francisco Recorded Median Sales and Sales Volume: June 2009 (www.SocketSite.com)
According to DataQuick, recorded home sales volume in San Francisco fell just 1.8% on a year-over-year basis last month (561 recorded sales in June ’09 versus 571 sales in June ‘08) and rose 12.7% compared to the month prior. The difference between recorded and listed sales activity speaks to a spike in unlisted closings, generally new construction or bank-owned sales that we’ll once again characterize as being driven by discounting.
San Francisco was only one of two Bay Area counties to record a year-over-year decline in sales volume in June with Napa recording a 4.4% decline. San Francisco’s median sales price in June was $635,000, down 12.6% compared to June ’08 ($726,750) and up a nominal 0.2% compared to the month prior.
For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in June was up 20.4% on a year-over-year basis and up 16.1% from the month prior (8,644 recorded sales in June ’09 versus 7,178 in June ’08 and 7,447 in May ’09), while the recorded median sales price fell 27.4% on a year-over-year basis, up 3.1% compared to the month prior (the third uptick in 18 months).

Last month 37.3 percent of all homes resold in the Bay Area had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months, down from 40.5 percent in May and the lowest since 36.0 percent in August 2008. The peak was 52.0 percent in February this year. By county, foreclosure resales ranged last month from 6.3 percent of all resales in Marin to 62.7 percent in Solano.

Use of government-insured FHA loans – a common choice among first-time buyers – represented 24.1 percent of all Bay Area purchase loans in June, down from a record 26 percent in April but up from 10.7 percent a year ago.

At the extreme, Solano recorded a 66.5% year-over-year increase in sales volume (a gain of 340 transactions) on a 38.3% drop in median sales price.
As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed (“sold”) many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).
Bay Area home sales and median price rise [DQnews]
San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In May: Down 16.0% YOY [SocketSite]
San Francisco Listed Sales Volume In June: Down 14% YOY [SocketSite]
Infinity Sales Update: New Contracts Up But Driven By Discounts [SocketSite]

Comments from Plugged-In Readers

  1. Posted by ashot

    so we’re stabilizing then?

  2. Posted by unwarrantedinlaw

    What a powerful local market. After the greatest bust in a generation, which has made getting a jumbo loan incredibly difficult, the premier properties – single family houses north of Clay – have hardly been affected.

  3. Posted by anon

    Yes, you see that steeply falling price trend line? Well, that may apply to SF as a whole but every individual neighborhood in SF, especially Real SF, has seen peak prices remain and they have “hardly been affected.” It is a “powerful” miracle of SF mathematics.
    End snark. The more expensive properties, of course, continue to see the slowest sales, highest inventory, and steepest price declines. Look for that to continue, particularly now that we are coming out of the “spring bounce” that never happened here, although some of the outlying counties saw a bit of a sales bounce albeit with continued price declines. Still several years to go on the correction.

  4. Posted by ester

    Not bad at all, volume is going back up, so is price. Not bad at all.
    As for those ultra expensive, who cares? Even if they come down another 50%, say from $20M to $10M, it still has nothing to do with me. They have to drop 95% to catch my eye ball.

  5. Posted by diemos

    As numerous people predicted, we are seeing the beginning of capitulation in the higher tiers, showing up as increased sales and medians skewing higher.

  6. Posted by polip

    diemos is spot on
    we’re getting closer to the market clearing price, which IMHO is a very good thing.
    we are not there yet (though we may be for low end/ exurb areas) for the ‘real SF,’ and we probably won’t get there for a couple of years, maybe 3-5 years.
    but, as the prices at the high end finally come down, we will see more sales clear.
    can’t get to GO without passing the JAIL square.

  7. Posted by anon

    From the report:
    “Use of government-insured FHA loans – a common choice among first-time buyers – represented 24.1 percent of all Bay Area purchase loans in June, down from a record 26 percent in April but up from 10.7 percent a year ago.”
    A snpshot of the next wave of mortgage defaults, sponsored by your the FHA, home of the 5% down, 600 FICO, realtor-inspector wink wink nudge nudge, qualification.

  8. Posted by Michael E

    I just noticed something interesting perusing MLS. I was looking at SFRs in Noe Valley. Of 38 listings, 24 were under $1.5mn, and of those, 13 are account contingent. What do readers think of this? Has Noe (at least in the low to mid end) hit bottom?

  9. Posted by REpornaddict

    “particularly now that we are coming out of the “spring bounce” that never happened here”.
    Really?
    I think that since March there has been a real bounce, with sales increasing each month over and above that expected by seasonality.
    I keep hoping for a seasonality like we had back in Feb/March – any chance of this?
    It’s also an interesting interpretation that increasing volumes and medians are seen as capitulation. Decreasing volumes and medians were seen as capitulation six months ago.
    Certainly the inventory figures don’t point at capitulation, at least for SFHs, although I haven’t seen a split of this by price tier, say – which would be informative. And the median price for SFHs is only off 5.7% YOY.
    And passing jail is OK, it’s landing there that causes the problem – unless you have a get out of free card of course…

  10. Posted by REpornaddict

    I keep hoping for a seasonality like we had back in Feb/March – any chance of this?
    I meant seasonality update – doh

  11. Posted by sparky-b

    Michael E,
    The cheapest 2 houses on the MLS for Noe show active:
    Valley street- shows contingent on the lots for sale, and is act. cont.
    22nd street- has a SS thread and is gutted house with no kitchen, no floor.

  12. Posted by JJ

    “Last month 37.3 percent of all homes resold in the Bay Area had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months, down from 40.5 percent in May and the lowest since 36.0 percent in August 2008. The peak was 52.0 percent in February this year.”
    At first glance this appears that foreclosures are declining, but only because of the strong seasonality of normal sales. I would suspect that the raw count is rising. 52% of feb sales is a lower number than 36% of june sales.
    Many would argue that foreclosure ‘season’ has not even really begun yet.
    It could get really ugly for anyone trying for an old school standard sale if that type of transaction becomes the minority in the fall.

  13. Posted by Legacy Dude

    Calculated Risk did a blurb on this piece, describing why the rise in sales and median is a function of mix, and should not be misconstrued as a sign of a bottom or bounce.
    But data can be viewed however people choose, I suppose. Personally, I suspect we have several more months (if not years) of people calling a bottom everytime an aggregated indicator shifts.
    The worst is clearly behind us. You heard it here first. And you’ll hear it here again next month! In the meantime, prices keep falling….

  14. Posted by two beers

    Yes, obviously the bottom is in, and we can expect a sizzling summer market with increased sales and prices.
    In related news, unemployment is reaching record lows, companies are expanding and hiring like crazy, commercial lease space is reaching record levels of scarcity, well-paying jobs are everywhere ready to be plucked like apples from a bountiful tree, wages are skyrocketing, the bubble is baa-aack baby, etc.
    Sell now, or be priced in forever.

  15. Posted by electrician

    Reading your comments, it seems the main conclusion I’ve come to is that in these data, like Rorschach tests, people see whatever they want to see.

  16. Posted by john

    “Reading your comments, it seems the main conclusion I’ve come to is that in these data, like Rorschach tests, people see whatever they want to see.”
    Wrong wrong wrong.
    People decide what they want to see first, then look at the data, they justify with whatever reason.
    Not:
    People see data, then see whatever they want to see.

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