CFAH

San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 6/15/09 (www.SocketSite.com)
Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco declined 1.9% over the past two weeks (versus an average increase of 8.5% for the same two week period over the previous three years) and is now running 9.0% higher on a year-over-year basis (down 4.2% for single-family homes and up 18.1% for condos/TICs) and 22.7% higher than at the same point in 2006.
At the same time, listed sales activity has fallen by 37% on a year-over-year basis with the effective mid-June months of inventory based on sales velocity in May rising roughly 72% on a year-over-year basis from 3.4 months in 2008 to 5.8 months in 2009, and up 108% from 2.8 months in 2006.
The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).
SocketSite’s San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 6/01/09 [SocketSite]
San Francisco Listed Sales Volume In May: Down 37% YOY [SocketSite]

Comments from Plugged-In Readers

  1. Posted by il_guru

    Hard to read market at this point especially for SFH.
    I personally think that those that don’t have to sell are not selling and will not sell anytime soon while demand for SFH is still relatively strong.
    This might actually keep prices of SFH relatively stable (high) in the short to mid-term.
    It will take years for this market to correct.

  2. Posted by Chad

    I know ! When will we get true SAN FRANCISCO only numbers ??
    Like I have said many times before, I am not seeing more than 8 to 10% drops in asking prices in the GOOD neighborhoods (read Pac Heights, Lower. Pac Heights, Russian Hill, Nob Hill etc.)
    Forget other districts (ex. Outer Missions, Bayview Heights etc.). Those are Ghetto anyways and don’t matter, cos I ain’t looking there 🙂
    [Editor’s Note: Keep in mind that Districts 7 (“Pacific Heights”) and 8 (“Russian/Nob Hill”) combined respresented less than 20% of all San Francisco county property sales in May (i.e., perhaps they’re actually less “real” than the rest).]

  3. Posted by Jeff

    I hear much of the bank-owned stuff isn’t on MLS. Any thoughts about publishing a chart that takes the non-MLS inventory into account?
    I agree with Chad that the asks aren’t dropping so much, but I also see tons of such properties just not going anywhere.

  4. Posted by ktdw

    @Chad
    I just saw the price an the units at 3110 Clay (pac heights) was recently reducted by almost 10%. I’m not sure about the building quality, etc., but IMO they are still a little small and overpriced.
    But atleast the price is heading in the right direction!

  5. Posted by Chad

    @Editor. Thanks for the Info. It makes sense now…. 🙂

  6. Posted by Rincon Hill Billy

    I still stick by my earlier prediction that the green line crosses below the orange one later this year.

  7. Posted by curmudgeon

    @ Rincon Hill Billy and then the “troubles” in Ireland will truly be over?

  8. Posted by EBGuy

    Foreclosures (NODs, NOTS, bank owned)currently stand at 1297; this is up 4.3% from 1243 foreclosures two weeks ago. Lots of pent up supply still in the pipeline.
    FWIW, I have some friends who are anxious to “get into the game” (not in the City). Finally managed to get through to them as the REO ratio (foreclosures/homes for sale) where they are looking is around 4:1 — yikes!

  9. Posted by Shza

    EBGuy’s comment reminds me —
    Editor: can we get a post on the CA foreclosure moratorium/slowdown that went into effect today? Apologies if that’s already been covered.

  10. Posted by Average Joe

    I agree with Jeff that it’d be interesting to find out just how much inventory is really sitting with the banks and hasn’t been listed yet. I suspect they hold that information purposely close to the vest. I know of 3 properties sitting idle near me, although — as Chad so eloquently stated — I’m clearly just a ghetto-punk living in a rat-shack anyways, so don’t pay me no nevermind.

  11. Posted by Jeff

    FWIW, there is a boarded-up house on Sanchez in the Noe Valley ghetto, with a 925 area-code number on the sign. No, it doesn’t show up on Redfin/MLS…

  12. Posted by Robert

    Ever walk up Day from Sanchez to Noe? Very strange that so many neglected/boarded up houses would be concentrated on one block. The blocks around it are fine, but Day is decrepit.
    Then again, it’s nothing compared to the 70s, when we lost 100,000 people, the city was busy bulldozing abandoned houses and the fire department was lighting up abandoned victorians for practice.
    On another note, do any of the Noe folk know why they are running the N down church today? I thought that only happened when there was a big Golden Gate Park event.

  13. Posted by marko1332

    A few weeks ago there was a discussion on how to monetize the $8,000 tax credit for first time buyers, thus allowing them to put down less and mitigate their exposure should the real estate market decling further.
    Here is a link from the NAHB explaining how to monetize the credit:
    http://www.nbnnews.com/NBN/issues/2009-06-15/Front%2BPage/index.html
    They’ve got homes to move, get busy first time buyers.

  14. Posted by Trip

    Is there another city in California where YOY inventory is higher than last year and YOY sales are lower? There may be another, but from a quick view of the listing data at Altos Research and sales data at Dataquick, SF appears to be the only one (or among the only ones) still getting worse on both fronts. Sale prices continue to decline all over the place, even with improvements elsewhere in the inventory and sales volume, but the downturn in SF appears to still be accelerating where it is at least slowing in other locales.
    This is all based on a quick review of the available info at these resources. Someone may have better info. I would not be surprised if other areas with a high percentage of housing that exceeds GSE loan limits are still seeing the YOY numbers get worse like SF.

  15. Posted by NoeValleyJim

    FWIW, there is a boarded-up house on Sanchez in the Noe Valley ghetto, with a 925 area-code number on the sign. No, it doesn’t show up on Redfin/MLS…
    You don’t mean 1409 Sanchez? Which house are you talking about? Did the sign just go up?

  16. Posted by NoeValleyJim

    Is there another city in California where YOY inventory is higher than last year and YOY sales are lower?
    Huh? I must be misunderstanding you or something because most of the cities in San Mateo county and the pricier parts of Santa Clara county fit this, as far as I can see.

  17. Posted by anon

    Supply and demand at work!

  18. Posted by tony

    >>Like I have said many times before, I am not seeing more than 8 to 10% drops in asking prices in the GOOD neighborhoods (read Pac Heights, Lower. Pac Heights, Russian Hill, Nob Hill etc.)>At the same time, listed sales activity has fallen by 37% on a year-over-year basis with the effective mid-June months of inventory based on sales velocity in May rising roughly 72% on a year-over-year basis from 3.4 months in 2008 to 5.8 months in 2009… 6 = buyer’s market (although it’s always a great time to buy or sell real estate). If so, then 10% down at near “equilibrium” (5.8 mths) seems “reasonable”.
    What do you think happens Nov09-Feb10 if the current trend continues? Hmm….

  19. Posted by Trip

    NVJ, which ones? I just checked on a few major cities (LA, San Diego, Sacramento, San Jose) and saw YOY inventory declines and sales increases. As I noted, I would not be surprised if pricier places (Palo Alto, Tiburon, La Jolla) are getting slammed by the expense and lack of jumbo loans like SF.

  20. Posted by NoeValleyJim

    Yeah, I meant Redwood City, Burlingame, Menlo Park, San Mateo, Cupertino, Palo Alto… all fit your definition of pricier places.

  21. Posted by Trip

    I should have said “another major city” in my initial post to clarify my point.
    As I’ve said a number of times, I think the most interesting SF real estate story right now is the stratification of the market with the higher end still falling fast and the lower end falling, but at a lower pace. But then I read the post about condos at the Palms, and maybe I’m wrong, and it’s still all falling fast . . .

  22. Posted by Robert

    Trip, I think it’s tough to read a lot into these micro-movements.
    At least, I would wait for the 1 year moving averages to come out, and then set aside a statistical uncertainty “band” around the averages before inferring significance.
    I think all the nice parts are not doing so well now, but they have been able to absorb the losses so there has been less forced selling than in the poorer hoods, which all makes sense.
    The next checkpoint I am waiting for is about a year after the bulk of the recasts complete, which would be August of 2013. If you don’t see a lot of forced selling at that point, then it most likely wont happen, barring some major economic hiccup. Without a lot of forced selling, we are in for a very slow grind. Indeed, it could be the case that if households are able to keep rolling over the debt, they will manages to absorb losses for the duration of the loan. Unlikely, but possible. And hell, maybe the cure for cancer will be found in South Beach, and all of San Francisco will be filled with wealthy patent-holders earning 300K a year.
    Anyways, I would again recommend reading the Shiller nytimes essay.

  23. Posted by Trip

    Robert, you’re absolutely right, of course. But it’s not nearly as much fun to look back 4 years and describe what was. More fun to try to get a read on what is going on now and what the near-term trend is. That way you get a bunch of “you don’t know what you’re talking abouts” in response and a nice debate!
    I did read Shiller’s NY Times piece — good read. Pretty persuasive explanation of why we are unlikely to see the downward price trend bottom out for quite a while. And it does not even go far enough imho. This price decline is still going strong even in areas (unlike SF) where YOY sales volume has picked up considerably and loans are cheap.

  24. Posted by Jeff

    Not sure of the exact address. We just walked past it again tonight. It is near 27th & Sanchez. The sign has been up for at least a week.

  25. Posted by Rillion

    Bloomberg’s chart of the day today is about the increasing inventory of $1 million+ homes in California.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aXQ2MXGoSysw
    “Currently, we have national home prices bottoming in 2011,” they said. “However, prices for more expensive homes may not bottom out until 2012, and ultimately result in peak-to- trough declines in excess of 60 percent (compared to 40 percent nationally).”

  26. Posted by spencer

    hey guys,
    Has the complete inventory index been permanently discontinued? I think it would answer a few of the questions here. There were a couple of teases about getting it out soon, but i think soon has passed.

  27. Posted by ex SF-er

    Rillion:
    your quote from Bloomberg terrifies me. For years I’ve felt that the housing pressure would go on until Dec 2011…
    But now it seems that the Mainstream Media is agreeing with me, and they’re wrong like 99% of the time.
    now that they’re saying 2011-2012, makes me think that maybe I’m wrong in my analysis.
    🙂

  28. Posted by Rillion

    ex-SF-er, I predict the housing market will recover when the mainstream media has abandoned all hope of a recovery. So this is actually a bullish development! 🙂

  29. Posted by EBGuy

    Don’t forget, Christmas 2012 is the “last call for jingle mail” as The Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act expires (aka “Don’t 1099 Me, Bro”).

  30. Posted by sparky-b

    Christmas 2012? There is not going to be a Christmas 2012. The world ends on the 21st of Dec in 2012!

  31. Posted by John

    Rillion,
    I have said several times. The market is at the bottom when the biggest bulls turn bear, and the market is at the top when the biggest bear turn bull.
    Is Bloomberg a generally very bull media?

  32. Posted by EBGuy

    sparky-b, Its not an ending, but a beginning: The post-2012 world will be a world of universal telepathy. Ha… I’d settle reasonable home price to income ratios.

  33. Posted by sparky-b

    EBGUY,
    I read that Pinchback book and it sucks. It doesn’t even talk about Quetzalcoatl (“Fingerprints of the Gods” is way better). I read the hyroglyphics differently than that nut job, crop circle making, Jim Morrison wannabe, I’m on a faux spiritual quest ’cause I can’t deal with fatherhood hack.

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