Expectations for the national housing market in 2008 according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA):
– A 2 percent decline in nominal median sales price (versus 2007)
– A 13 percent decline in existing home sales (versus 2007)
– A 15 percent decline in new home sales (versus 2007)
– An 18 percent decline in purchase mortgage originations (versus 2007)
The MBA is also forecasting that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage yield will trend up slightly to 6.2 percent by the end of the year (yes, “still quite low by historical standards”), and that the market will start its recovery in 2009.
∙ 2008 MBA Forecast: Slow Economic Growth/Lower Levels of Mortgage Originations [MBA]
“still quite low by historical standards”: pushing on a string
“the market will start to recover in 2009”: what it starts to recover in 2009 are the relatively san prices from before the bubble, which might be fully recovered as early as 2012
…and San Francisco will see a small median increase during this time …