With the seasonal culling of unsold inventory in full swing, the net number of homes listed for sale in San Francisco dropped another 13 percent over the past week to 1,090 and will likely drop another 25-30 percent through the end of the year before climbing in January.
That being said, inventory levels are now running 175 percent higher than they were at the same time last year, with 200 percent more condos on the market and 120 percent more single-family homes.
And of those homes still listed for sale in the city, roughly 40 percent are now listed for under a million dollars (versus 26 percent at the same time last year) and 34 percent have undergone at least one price reduction (including 33 percent of the single-family homes and versus 28 percent of all active listings at the same time last year).
Q1 and Q2 2021 will be total carnage for SF condos. Gird your loins…
Why do you expect the trajectory to change from how it’s been? What’s new in Q1-Q2 aside from the vaccine rolling out?
Nobody (and I mean nobody) knows the near and mid-term implications ( > 2 months) of mRNA vaccines in large populations. mRNA technology is pretty interesting. The science is ground breaking. But it is also riddled with challenges. The long term implications/side-effects of these vaccines is entirely and categorically not established. But you won’t be able to hold Pfizer or MRNA accountable since these vaccines were developed with liability free conditions.
If it works and everything checks out, great. This exercise in large-scale delivery of mRNA vaccines is the first time in the history of medical sciences
But more to the point — forbearance period has ended. Expect to see several delinquencies, foreclosures etc surface.
[Editor’s Note: Understanding and Explaining mRNA COVID-19 Vaccines.]
it’s true that we don’t know for sure but we know [mRNA] doesn’t enter or impact DNA. not so worried about long term side effects, but am worried that we will have to take a new shot every year which will be harder for people to comply with. we do have up to 6 months of data now on a few thousand patients.
millions of people will have received the vaccine before most of us even get a chance to take it
the problem is that a lot of people will get sick or die from various causes after taking the vaccines (as they normally would without it) and anti-vaxxers and an uneducated media (especially social media) will jump on that. its going to be a bumpy ride.
@jimbo — mRNA science is pretty exciting. These vaccines in particular (perhaps) may not impact DNA. But mRNA science has pathways to realize that. That is indeed the “big” mRNA application — which is forcing DNA to express differently than they otherwise would . Which is another way of instructing the body to develop or not develop features. In fact this possibility is what prompted the initial foray and development of this technology. My limited understanding is that it is quite a bit of challenge to ‘contain’ mRNA from not realizing unintended changes which is where most of the current work is undergoing.
To be entirely honest, I don’t know how you would establish efficacy of these vaccines. mRNA disintegrates in minutes if not seconds. That is assuming mRNA strands were intact prior to and during injection and they actually made their way to the receptor cells.
The marker for efficacy (in this particular case) is presence of anti-bodies which also may occur naturally on exposure. So did I get the anti-bodies from the vaccine? Did I actually get mRNA into me or was it just salt water because it disintegrated at room temperature? How do you establish the anti-bodies in a healthy person are because of the vaccine and not naturally occurring? I don’t know the answers.
[Editor’s Note: Once again, we’ll refer you to the CDC and turn the conversation back to the inventory levels and implications at hand.]
Inventory will continue to pile up; rentals rates will stay low or decline further; foreclosures will increase; remote work will continue; the full economic impacts of COVID will continue to unfold; etc…