While the number of homes on the market in San Francisco has dropped 16 percent over the past two weeks with typical seasonality in play, inventory levels are now up over 130 percent on a year-over-year basis and climbing, versus 95 percent higher on a year-over-year basis when inventory levels peaked in the absolute last month, with 155 percent more condos on the market than at the same time last year and 75 percent more single-family homes.

And with the asking price for 29 percent of the single-family homes on the market having been reduced at least once and 42 percent of the condos, a little over 39 percent of all the homes on the market in San Francisco have been reduced, which is 7 percentage points higher than at the same time last year and the highest share of reduced listings since the fourth quarter of 2011.

And while the average list price of all the homes on the market has dropped around 5 percent over the past quarter on a price per square foot basis, the average list price of the homes which are in contract has dropped a little over 6 percent and the “expectation gap” between the two has inched back up to around 7 percent.

Comments from Plugged-In Readers

  1. Posted by Jerriod Tarnitelli

    Although cliche, ‘location, location, location’ is seemingly the life preserver for some of these SF condos. Prices are falling fast, so are rentals. We are still only 75% through 1 year leases signed pre-covid and rents did not drop until 6 months ago.. we still have a ways to go.

    • Posted by Freeloader

      I have a friend who moved apartments to The Harrison in early April ie closer to 8 months ago. She negotiated 15% off. That’s an anecdote—did official rent numbers hold steady in April and May?

    • Posted by ST

      If I were you, I would find a rent controlled unit, once your lease is up, and take advantage of today’s lower rent, and be set for the rest of my life. Forget about buying ever in SF….

      • Posted by TBK

        Because most rent controlled SF apartments are super awesome places to spend the next 10 – 15 years of your life in???

        • Posted by ST

          Well, there are some rent controlled units that are at a nice location and reasonably updated. I would go for one of those, and lock in today’s rent. Then you are all set for as long as you choose to stay in SF.

        • Posted by Fishchum

          My wife and I have had our 1/1 apartment in the Marina under rent control since ’94. It’s a lovely Beaux-Arts building that is only a couple of blocks to The Presidio, Palace of Fine Arts, and the Chestnut Street commercial corridor.

          • Posted by Jake T

            The rent controlled rental inventory in the city that’s on the market is total trash.

  2. Posted by Kyle S.

    How many of these price drops are actually auction starting prices? We’ve been keeping our eye on the market and have seen at least two significant price drops that, once you drill into the listing, are actually the starting price for a “luxury auction”.

    Protip: if your unit has been listed at $1.2 million for two months, then relist it as an auction starting at $900k, you’ve kind of telegraphed your reserve price.

    • Posted by SocketSite

      Less than 1 percent.

    • Posted by SocketSite

      Speaking of which, the “Luxury Live Auction!” date of December 3 for the 765-square-foot, one-bedroom unit #1011 in the SoMa Grand building at 1160 Mission Street has come and gone without a closed sale and despite bidding for the unit – which was purchased for $665,000 in 2013 and listed for $779,000 this past July – having been advertised as “starting at $550,000.”

      At the same time, the unit remains listed for “$550,000” on the MLS with a new “Luxury Live Auction!” date of December 17.

  3. Posted by Tipster

    88 King street #1409 with a bay view just sold for below its 2003 price: bought in 2003 for 1.490, looks to be recently updated for about $70K, and sold for 1.420 13 years later two weeks ago. So they lost about $200K on a 13 year hold. See name link.

    They were smart: rather than list it, then drop it 50 times by a nickel, thereby providing no sense of urgency, they listed it for 1.095 and made every buyer scramble and bid as high as possible.

    • Posted by EBGuy

      Talk about a heavy hitter. King Quant doesn’t mess around.

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