As we first outlined back in October of last year:

Joining the ranks of newly reduced homes is 4085 20th Street, a modern 3,720-square-foot Dolores Heights home perched above Dolores Park, with “breathtaking views” from each of its three levels, “outstanding craftsmanship, thoughtful design and ethereal beauty,” and a two-car garage with a (new) Tesla charging station and driveway parking for three cars.

Having been rebuilt in 2014, the three-bedroom view home was listed for $4.995 million in March of 2015 and sold for $4.5 million that May.

And having returned to the market listed for $5.595 million this past July, a sale at which would have represented total appreciation of 24 percent for the luxury home over the past four years, or roughly 5.4 percent per year on a straight line basis, the list price for 4085 20th Street has just been reduced to $4.495 million with an interim reduction to $4.85 million last month.

As we added early last month:

Subsequently withdrawn from the MLS and then relisted with an “original” list price of $4.6 million and an official “1” day on the market according to all MLS-based stats and aggregate reports in January, the list price for 4085 20th Street has just been “REDUCED [an additional] $605K!” to $3.995 million, a sale at which would now represent depreciation of 11.2 percent for the Dolores Heights home since mid-2015 on an apples-to-apples versus “median price” basis.

And having gone into contract three weeks ago, prior to the COVID-19 hit, the sale of 4085 20th Street has now closed escrow with a contract price of $3.995 million, which is officially “at asking!” according to all industry stats and aggregate reports but 29 percent ($1.6M) below its original list and 11.2 percent ($505K) below the price the Dolores Heights view fetched in mid-2015 on an apples-to-apples versus “median price” basis.

Comments from Plugged-In Readers

  1. Posted by why

    Kitchen on the third floor?

    I love this area.

  2. Posted by Marcia

    If the kitchen is on the third floor I hope there’s an elevator or I’d have to hire a grocery slave.

  3. Posted by sanfrantim

    11% off 2015 pricing seems about right.

    • Posted by melinda

      My goodness 11% off 2015 for a single family home in Noe before COVID19 hit. It’s going to get really scary out there when the housing market re-opens for business. Really scary!

      • Posted by Brahma (incensed renter)

        Only for the people who have to sell, which won’t be a very large percentage. Everyone else will just wait this out. Witness the number of listings being pulled off the market.

        • Posted by wilson

          Last market top was 2007. 13 years is a very long time to wait out. I suspect that we will see that just like last time many people are far too overstretched to wait very long at all.

        • Posted by sf

          projected 30-40% unemployment = not sure most sellers have enough savings if laid off to wait out a decade.

        • Posted by scurvy

          Listings are being pulled because it looks bad to have a high number of “days on market” when there are no showings and very little mortgage activity. They’re not pulled because they think prices will rebound and be higher in 30-90-180 days. This will take years to play out.

          The number of people who have to sell actually will be a very large percentage. People who have already moved and bought another place. People on big IO loans nearing year 10. Even highly paid execs will see their total comp come crashing down as stock comp is slaughtered over the next 2 quarters.

          Risk on takes place over a very long time. Risk off takes place in much shorter time frames (days/weeks). We’re still in risk off mode.

          Realtors are absolutely delusional if they think they’re going to get anything near pre-CV19 prices over the next year or two. The immediate “selling season” is just gone. Write it off, throw it out, and cancel those fancy vacations BrokerBros.

          • Posted by Ohlone Californio

            Many listings have been pulled because it’s actually currently technically illegal to show them in person.

          • Posted by SocketSite

            While that’s correct with respect to occupied properties, and agents are currently required to provide virtual showings when feasible, in person showings are still allowed for unoccupied properties, “by appointment with no more than two visitors at a time residing within the same household or living unit and one individual showing the unit,” as we outlined last week.

            At the same time, the Number of Homes for Sale in San Francisco [Just Ticked] Up.

  4. Posted by Realtor

    An odd house that looks cool and has nice finishes. No real yard even in a typical SF fashion. Lower level family room is far removed from the rest of the house and feels like it would only be used by kids wanting to be away from parents or as a home office set up. I don’t think representative of the market pre-CV19

  5. Posted by m2b112

    I thoroughly enjoy the content on SocketSite. Keep it coming for sure!

    @Editor, when was this contract signed? I know that the post says 3 weeks ago. I’m trying to figure out if it was signed “pre-COVID”. And I’m thinking about it in regard to did the S&P 500 react dramatically (bear market territory or close to at least) yet to covid-19 and all of its knock on effects? I know that someone can argue that the contract was signed before the Shelter in Place order on March 19th. That’s a fair point but just not how I would think about it.

    S&P 500
    All Time High: 3,393 in February
    March 6th Close: 2,972 (-12.4% from the ATH)
    March 13th Close: 2,711 (-20.1% from the ATH)
    March 20th Close: 2,305 (-32.1% from the ATH)

    Great discussion as always on here. Much appreciated!

  6. Posted by Anna

    Brutal for the sellers…feeling sorry for them.

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