With 72,327 election day ballots having since been added to the early mail-in count in San Francisco, for a total of 144,667 ballots having been tallied, representing 28.7 percent of the 503,899 potential votes which could be cast, Proposition D is PASSING and the YES margin for Proposition E has increased to 55 percent:
Proposition D (Vacancy Tax for Ground Floor Retail/Commercial Spaces): 68% YES / 31% NO
Proposition E (Additional Limits on Office Development): 55% YES / 45% NO
Keep in mind that Proposition D requires 66⅔% Yes votes to pass and there are a significant number of mail-in ballots (over 40,000), including every mail-in ballot dropped off at a polling place on election day, which have yet to be processed.
Based on the first tabulation of 72,340 mail-in ballots, Proposition D was failing (63% YES) while the YES margin for Proposition E was 52 percent. In other words, if the yet to be counted mail-in ballots follow the trend of the first batch, the outcome for Proposition D would flip (to a fail).
UPDATE: In fact, including provisional ballots, there are an estimated 103,600 ballots left to count as of this morning, March 4, including:
- 57,000 vote-by-mail ballots returned to polling places on Election Day.
- 3,700 vote-by-mail ballots returned to ballot drop-off stations on Election Day.
- 2,700 vote-by-mail ballots cast at voting centers on Election Day.
- 24,000 provisional and conditional voter registration ballots cast at polling places.
- 1,700 conditional voter registration ballots cast at voting centers.
- 14,500 vote-by-mail ballots expected today (March 4) from the United State Postal Service
UPDATE: With an additional 35,538 ballots having been counted, for a total of 180,205, the support for Proposition D is holding firm at 68 percent YES while the support for Proposition E has slipped from 55.4 to 54.6 percent with an estimated 70,000 ballots left to be processed. Both propositions should pass assuming the trend for vote-by-mail ballots returned on election day, versus mailed, holds.
UPDATE: With another 60,477 ballots having been tallied, for a total of 240,682, the support for Proposition D has ticked up to a little over 69 percent YES while the support for Proposition E has inched down to 54.5 percent. And while there are now 54,000 ballots left to be processed, the passage of both propositions is now effectively guaranteed.