With a total of 244,398 ballots having now been tallied, representing 50.71 percent of 482,000 potential votes, London Breed has extended her lead in San Francisco’s mayoral race to 1,861 votes.
And while there are an estimated 7,800 ballots remaining to be processed, based on the trend for the latest batch of 9,200 ballots processed over the past 24 hours, which included 7,311 of the roughly 14,000 provisional ballots cast, Breed will win the election by a margin of around 2,100 votes (0.83 percent of all ballots cast).
The accounting for the ranked-choice results, as of 4PM today (June 12) are outlined in the table above with the current tallies for the top four vote getters, including first choice votes, below:
1. London Breed 36.56% of first choice votes (50.43% based on ranked choice result tallies)
2. Mark Leno 24.66% (49.58% based on ranked choice results)
3. Jane Kim 24.03% (CONCEDED)
4. Angela Alioto 6.96%
In order for Mark Leno to pass Breed, Leno’s margin of victory for the remaining 7,800 votes would need to be around 12 percent, or nearly 3x the 4.7 percent advantage Leno was able to muster with ballots cast at the polls on Election Day.
UPDATE (6/13): Mark Leno has now conceded, which shouldn’t catch any plugged-in readers by surprise.
And with an additional 2,762 ballots having been tallied since our original post, Breed’s margin of victory has grown to 2,177 votes, which represents 0.88% of the 247,160 ballots tallied with an estimated 6,700 yet to be processed, which should yield an effective, and above average, election turnout of around 52.67% and 50.49% of the Ranked Choice Votes going to Breed when all is said and done.
UPDATE (6/14): With an additional 2,413 ballots having been tallied over the past 24 hours and an estimated 4,300 remaining in the queue, Breed’s margin of victory has grown to 2,248 votes, which represents 0.90% of the 249,573 ballots tallied and 50.50 percent of the Ranked Choice Votes.