Single-family home values within the San Francisco MSA are up 15.4 percent over the past year and the index for the top-tier of San Francisco homes is at an all-time high, according to the latest S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index.  The biggest jump in prices, however, was for homes at lower end of the market.

That being said, while all three tiers of the market advanced, and the overall San Francisco Index increased 2.3 percent from April to May, the aggregate index remains 11.0% below its May 2006 peak.

S&P Case-Shiller Index: San Francisco MSA

The bottom third of the market gained 4.6 percent from April to May (up 29.5 percent YOY); the middle third gained 1.4 percent from April to May (up 12.5 percent YOY); and the top third of the market gained 0.9 percent from April to May and is up 14.4 percent year-over-year.

According to the index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA are back above April 2004 levels (35 percent below an August 2006 peak); the middle third is back to just below January 2005 levels (16 percent below a May 2006 peak); and the top third of the market is now 3.1 percent higher than the previous peak set in August of 2007.

Having gained 1.5 percent from April to May, condo values in the San Francisco MSA are up 14.5 percent over the past year and have hit a new all-time high which is 1.5 percent above the previous October 2005 peak.

S&P Case-Shiller Condo Price Index

For the broader 10-City U.S. composite index, home values ticked up 1.0 percent from April to May and are running 9.4 percent higher on a year-over-year basis but remain 18.1 percent below a June 2006 peak.

Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).

Comments from Plugged-In Readers

  1. Posted by Sally

    Looks like great buying opportunities for bottom tier buyers and buyers in Chicago and LA!

    I don’t see SF slowing down for the next 5 years.

    Congrats Trukia employees for the Zillow take out!

  2. Posted by eddy

    Lower tier rising is always a concern but it seems to be moving largely in tandem with the other tiers. Seems the gap there is closing. It’s not clear what is going to slow or stall the market; and less clear what will turn it around.

  3. Posted by Anon

    I don’t know about that eddy. Bayview in particular is looking very bubblish, IMO.

    kinda reminds me of the last boom. Bayview saw the biggest gain, subsequently and the biggest fall. The difference this time is the amount of cash, of course …

  4. Posted by eddy

    Bayview and D10 areas are rising due to what appears to be gentrification and cash buyers. The same people that moved to and dramatically altered the Mission are now moving into those areas. The last boom was fueled by buyers getting in over their head on crazy loan schemes and low lending standards. Anyone burned by that wont be buying a home for some time; and those that held on generally got bailed out.

  5. Posted by eddy

    2210 Pine Street just listed in what appears to be an over asking ‘for comp purposes only listing’ @ $1600/psf and 3.1mm. Listed and closed in 1 day. If we are looking at signs of a bubble, please look here. This one doesn’t make any sense.

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