“The National Association of Realtors trimmed its sales forecast for the sixth straight month but pared back its predicted drop in existing home values. Existing-home sales should hit a pace of 6.04 million units this year, down from the 6.11 million units it predicted last month.”
“The national median sales price for existing homes should ease by 1.2 percent to $219,300 this year, the association concluded. Last month, the trade group said prices should slip 1.4 percent. [While the] median new-home price will probably fall 2.3 percent to $240,800…” (Housing gets mixed outlook)
∙ NAR’s New New National Forecast (Yes, Another Little Cut) [SocketSite]
They have no idea what they are doing. Not only are they always wrong, they are always pointing out that they are wrong by correcting their mistakes.
If this is so hard that they are always wrong, they should change what they do, maybe give ranges or something like that.
Yep, same as economics in general. Forecast to your own benefit and publish “revised figures” further down the road.
I’ve just about stopped listening to NAR predictions, their conflict of interest is so blatant that its hard to believe anything they say. Its like asking Cheney how the war is going.
A financial analysis of the NAR announcement today:
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2007/08/08/still-more-housing-bull.aspx
“To begin with, the trade group’s updated home-sales estimate is lower than the one it issued last month. Not that it bothers to point that out. But we’re watching you, NAR, and the 6.04 million existing home sales you’re predicting is a 1.1% drop from what you predicted last month. The new home sales prediction today is 1.5% lower than the one you made last month. And together, those predicted sales numbers come to 8.5% fewer than were sold in 2006 — something you also didn’t bother to quantify for readers.”
It would be interesting to hear what agents honestly feel about their national organization. If I was an agent, I think I’d just be embarrassed at their ineptness and complete lack of grasp of economic reality.